TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Populovskyi vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113117114––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 69.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 10–0 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1369.5%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.9pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1362 vs Stetsenko 1438
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 40% vs Stetsenko 20%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 30% vs Stetsenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi +2 · Stetsenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Populovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 1.363 / Stetsenko 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Populovskyi)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266237
Populovskyi1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 91 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Stetsenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 92 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi10wins
AwayStetsenko0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi100%10 of 10
AwayStetsenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi10Stetsenko0n = 10Populovskyi took 10 of 10
S2Populovskyi5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Populovskyi8Stetsenko2n = 10Populovskyi took 8 of 10
S4Populovskyi4Stetsenko1n = 5Populovskyi took 4 of 5
S5Populovskyi3Stetsenko0n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiStetsenkoP − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match40.429.2+11.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 707 vs 455 / 87147.8%52.2%338 / 707 vs 455 / 871Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiPopulovskyi 1.36/Stetsenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi331111113M. Stetsenko236890
WSep 4 · 05:05E. Populovskyi4411911133M. Stetsenko346116111
WAug 27 · 07:20E. Populovskyi49119711113M. Stetsenko4071111742
WAug 24 · 07:20E. Populovskyi331111113M. Stetsenko215970
WAug 7 · 06:00E. Populovskyi44111111113M. Stetsenko29813531
WAug 6 · 12:50E. Populovskyi351113113M. Stetsenko2581160
WJul 31 · 04:30E. Populovskyi51119119113M. Stetsenko3741161152
WJul 12 · 12:30E. Populovskyi331111113M. Stetsenko205780
WJul 9 · 06:20E. Populovskyi49119711113M. Stetsenko4791111792
WJun 22 · 09:50E. Populovskyi331111113M. Stetsenko165830
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113WOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko3.007750E. Populovskyi1.361111113LOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640LOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101LOct 5 · 10:00S. Solomko1.171111113E. Populovskyi4.504270LOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760LOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141LOct 5 · 04:30O. Volynets1.5711411123E. Populovskyi2.254117101LOct 4 · 11:50E. Populovskyi4.333870S. Solomko1.201111113WOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121
M. Stetsenko10
LOct 9 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy2.38131112113M. Stetsenko1.531561061LOct 9 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.5091112113M. Stetsenko1.501181071WOct 9 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko2.3811117752M. Stetsenko1.53971111113LOct 8 · 12:50M. Stetsenko3.7567111142S. Solomko1.25111197113LOct 8 · 10:50I. Emets1.6711119113M. Stetsenko2.10761161LOct 8 · 08:50O. Leonenko1.57881111113M. Stetsenko2.2511118392LOct 8 · 07:50M. Stetsenko2.00119791O. Volynets1.7381111113WOct 8 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.3379150M. Stetsenko3.251111173WOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113
Upcoming Matches
E. Populovskyi
M. Stetsenko
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.