TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Emets vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116911116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Ihor Emets at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Emets 1471 vs Stetsenko 1480
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 80% vs Stetsenko 60%
Emets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 50% vs Stetsenko 70%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets +1 · Stetsenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Emets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.666 / Stetsenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Emets)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261183
Emets1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 61 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Stetsenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 499 vs 454 / 86751.3%52.4%256 / 499 vs 454 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.67/Stetsenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Emets won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
I. Emets10
WOct 8 · 11:50O. Leonenko2.75125771I. Emets1.40101111113WOct 8 · 09:50I. Emets2.25911116133O. Volynets1.57116711112LOct 8 · 08:20I. Emets2.631110119102S. Hryhorenko1.44812411123WOct 8 · 06:20I. Emets1.61691112113S. Solomko2.20111181062WOct 6 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.671511781I. Emets2.1017811113WOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 08:30I. Emets2.38117101182O. Volynets1.53611127113LOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551LSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192
M. Stetsenko10
LOct 8 · 08:50O. Leonenko1.57881111113M. Stetsenko2.2511118392LOct 8 · 07:50M. Stetsenko2.00119791O. Volynets1.7381111113WOct 8 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.3379150M. Stetsenko3.251111173WOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113WOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 5 · 07:50V. Melnykov2.6311681152M. Stetsenko1.44811117113LOct 5 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.251114810133M. Stetsenko1.578121112112WOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113
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