TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Ihor Emets 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1517118711811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Osadchyi @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Ihor Emets below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 88 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 57.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 13–8 Ihor Emets Ihor Emets has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:3057.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Osadchyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1443 vs Emets 1444
Emets
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Emets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Emets 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Emets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.666 / Emets 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Osadchyi)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251102
Osadchyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 113 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 81 of 104
Emets2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi6wins
AwayEmets4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi60%6 of 10
AwayEmetsn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi10Emets0n = 10Osadchyi took 10 of 10
S2Osadchyi5Emets5n = 10split evenly
S3Osadchyi2Emets8n = 10Emets took 8 of 10
S4Osadchyi3Emets6n = 9Emets took 6 of 9
S5Osadchyi3Emets1n = 4Osadchyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiEmetsO − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.9+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiEmetsBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 869 vs 255 / 50051.7%51%449 / 869 vs 255 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.67/Emets 2.10
Miss
What we said
57.8%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Osadchyi @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi49111179113I. Emets4678111192
LSep 22 · 11:05O. Osadchyi47157111042I. Emets541311712113
LSep 17 · 09:05O. Osadchyi34117971I. Emets3411111113
LSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi29117651I. Emets3851111113
WAug 27 · 11:05O. Osadchyi51121297113I. Emets491010111172
WJul 29 · 05:35O. Osadchyi331111113I. Emets133550
LJul 1 · 10:30O. Osadchyi32118851I. Emets4071111113
WMar 9 · 11:50O. Osadchyi4111118113I. Emets37981191
WMar 2 · 10:50O. Osadchyi3711114113I. Emets36791191
WJun 19 · 06:20O. Osadchyi40113411113I. Emets4271111852
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi1.804880A. Kurtenko1.911111113WOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441WOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113LOct 4 · 09:50S. Solomko1.5711111113O. Osadchyi2.25491131LOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751WOct 4 · 05:50E. Populovskyi3.5010980O. Osadchyi1.281211113WOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971
I. Emets10
WOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 08:30I. Emets2.38117101182O. Volynets1.53611127113LOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551LSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 10:05I. Emets1.5311481172S. Solomko2.38911118113LSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets2.255870O. Volynets1.571111113WSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 05:35I. Emets1.839117101A. Kovalenko1.8311911123WSep 28 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.61881161I. Emets2.2011119113
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