TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Andrii Martyniuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118119107––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:49 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-7
Point 73 set 4, 10-7 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 79.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 0–10 Andrii Martyniuk Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4979.4%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 0.6pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Martyniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-10 in 10
Martyniuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1429 vs Martyniuk 1584
Martyniuk
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Martyniuk 100%
Martyniuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Martyniuk 80%
Martyniuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Martyniuk +7
Martyniuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 3.75 / Martyniuk 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Martyniuk)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13235104
Osadchyi3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 94 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Martyniuk1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 67 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi0wins
AwayMartyniuk10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMartyniuk100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi2Martyniuk8n = 10Martyniuk took 8 of 10
S2Osadchyi4Martyniuk6n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi0Martyniuk10n = 10Martyniuk took 10 of 10
S4Osadchyi3Martyniuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Osadchyi0Martyniuk3n = 3Martyniuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiMartyniukO − MBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.439.7−12.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 864 vs 191 / 36251.7%52.8%447 / 864 vs 191 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukOsadchyi 3.75/Martyniuk 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 07:35O. Osadchyi23611421A. Martyniuk4211911113
LSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi321011651A. Martyniuk4012611113
LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi246990A. Martyniuk331111113
LAug 29 · 18:30O. Osadchyi34117881A. Martyniuk3631111113
LAug 11 · 05:30O. Osadchyi176470A. Martyniuk331111113
LAug 5 · 07:35O. Osadchyi94320A. Martyniuk331111113
LJul 22 · 11:35O. Osadchyi4051181152A. Martyniuk50119118113
LJul 18 · 16:30O. Osadchyi192980A. Martyniuk331111113
LJun 30 · 11:35O. Osadchyi4211971142A. Martyniuk46511118113
LJun 27 · 13:30O. Osadchyi3431161222A. Martyniuk511181110113
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.73111112A. Kovalenko2.008810WOct 3 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.25131210113E. Populovskyi3.7511101291LOct 3 · 12:00O. Osadchyi2.5081010S. Solomko1.501112113WOct 1 · 09:05E. Populovskyi3.507680O. Osadchyi1.281111113LOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890LOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870WSep 30 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.381112113O. Shyshman1.5331040
A. Martyniuk10
WOct 3 · 17:00A. Martyniuk1.4491111123A. Kovalenko2.631179101WOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410WOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 12:30A. Martyniuk1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.636990WOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081WOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113WOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102LOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113WSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113
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