TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Oleksandr Osadchyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 57–48 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 48 of their 105 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
57-48 in 105
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1508 vs Osadchyi 1435
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 20% vs Osadchyi 40%
Osadchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 40% vs Osadchyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -4 · Osadchyi -1
Leonenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.00 / Osadchyi 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osadchyi)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223549
Leonenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55
Osadchyi1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 110 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko5wins
AwayOsadchyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko80%4 of 5
AwayOsadchyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko5Osadchyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Leonenko5Osadchyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Leonenko6Osadchyi4n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko2Osadchyi5n = 7Osadchyi took 5 of 7
S5Leonenko2Osadchyi1n = 3Leonenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiL − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.641.2−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 821 vs 445 / 86451.2%51.5%420 / 821 vs 445 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiLeonenko 2.00/Osadchyi 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko331111113O. Osadchyi225890
WSep 22 · 09:35O. Leonenko48118117113O. Osadchyi4051181152
WSep 21 · 10:50O. Leonenko53915126113O. Osadchyi501113101152
LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko48101111161O. Osadchyi5112813183
WJun 11 · 10:20O. Leonenko4615117133O. Osadchyi4413911111
LJun 10 · 21:20O. Leonenko4914981172O. Osadchyi521211117113
LJun 7 · 21:20O. Leonenko33671191O. Osadchyi3811115113
LJun 3 · 15:50O. Leonenko182790O. Osadchyi331111113
WMay 24 · 16:50O. Leonenko451519113O. Osadchyi39131790
LMay 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko33861271O. Osadchyi43111110113
O. Leonenko10
LSep 29 · 09:00O. Leonenko6.008550Y. Volkov1.111111113LSep 29 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.2554111192Y. Kovshun1.57111158113LSep 29 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.209770D. Khairov1.611111113LSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 24 · 11:05A. Kurtenko1.67811111292O. Leonenko2.10116414113WSep 24 · 10:05O. Leonenko1.83131485113A. Martyniuk1.831112111172WSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko2.0011117113E. Populovskyi1.73841171LSep 24 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.7581311592O. Lipeiko1.251111811113LSep 24 · 05:35O. Leonenko2.20811119122S. Solomko1.61115711143WSep 22 · 11:35O. Leonenko1.73126113113A. Kovalenko2.00101151152
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870WSep 30 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.381112113O. Shyshman1.5331040LSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.20861151S. Solomko1.6111119113LSep 30 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.53118111082O. Volynets2.38611912113WSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:05O. Osadchyi2.2011411562S. Solomko1.61811711113LSep 29 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.4413660A. Kovalenko2.631511103
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