TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Solomko vs Oleksandr Osadchyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118114111––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:03 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Solomko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Serhii Solomko @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingSerhii Solomko above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 66 set 4, 11-1 · our read held Serhii Solomko at 58.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Solomko 98–65 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 65 of their 163 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Solomko beat Osadchyi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 04:0358.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Solomko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
98-65 in 163
Solomko
Correct
gap of 33 in 163, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Solomko 1518 vs Osadchyi 1457
Solomko
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Solomko 60% vs Osadchyi 40%
Solomko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Solomko 70% vs Osadchyi 40%
Solomko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Solomko -1 · Osadchyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Solomko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSolomko 1.615 / Osadchyi 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Solomko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223644
Solomko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 116 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it89% 57 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 82 of 104
Osadchyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 96 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSolomko7wins
AwayOsadchyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSolomko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSolomko100%4 of 4
AwayOsadchyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Solomko4Osadchyi6n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S2Solomko8Osadchyi2n = 10Solomko took 8 of 10
S3Solomko5Osadchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Solomko4Osadchyi2n = 6Solomko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSolomkoOsadchyiS − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.629.9+5.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSolomkoOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 1044 vs 445 / 86251.7%51.6%540 / 1044 vs 445 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SolomkoSolomko 1.61/Osadchyi 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Solomko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Serhii Solomko @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–1
Solomko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 06:00S. Solomko4211119113O. Osadchyi30861151
WSep 29 · 08:05S. Solomko48811711113O. Osadchyi3711411562
WSep 27 · 10:20S. Solomko331111113O. Osadchyi112450
WSep 26 · 15:30S. Solomko331111113O. Osadchyi227960
LSep 21 · 07:50S. Solomko2137110O. Osadchyi351111133
WSep 20 · 06:20S. Solomko331111113O. Osadchyi176740
LSep 13 · 05:50S. Solomko32511881O. Osadchyi4011711113
WSep 7 · 07:30S. Solomko48861211113O. Osadchyi43111110832
LSep 3 · 06:00S. Solomko311011731O. Osadchyi3912511113
WSep 2 · 06:35S. Solomko3521111113O. Osadchyi25114731
S. Solomko10
LSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.001111113S. Solomko1.735680WSep 30 · 10:00S. Solomko2.201111113O. Volynets1.613960LSep 30 · 08:00O. Shyshman1.281613113S. Solomko3.50141130WSep 30 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.20861151S. Solomko1.6111119113WSep 30 · 05:00E. Populovskyi3.4077100S. Solomko1.301111123LSep 29 · 12:05S. Solomko1.503790A. Kovalenko2.501111113WSep 29 · 10:05I. Emets1.5311481172S. Solomko2.38911118113WSep 29 · 08:05O. Osadchyi2.2011411562S. Solomko1.61811711113WSep 29 · 07:05S. Solomko2.381410117113O. Volynets1.53121271192WSep 29 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.001111111162S. Solomko1.73139813113
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870WSep 30 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.381112113O. Shyshman1.5331040LSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.20861151S. Solomko1.6111119113LSep 30 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.53118111082O. Volynets2.38611912113WSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:05O. Osadchyi2.2011411562S. Solomko1.61811711113LSep 29 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.4413660A. Kovalenko2.631511103
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