TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Anatolii Kovalenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111171191210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 65.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 3–3 Anatolii Kovalenko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5465.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1575 vs Kovalenko 1482
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 100% vs Kovalenko 80%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 70% vs Kovalenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk +6 · Kovalenko +1
Martyniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.444 / Kovalenko 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Martyniuk)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234303
Martyniuk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 67 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Kovalenko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 35 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMartyniuk3wins
AwayKovalenko3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk60%3 of 5
AwayKovalenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk5Kovalenko1n = 6Martyniuk took 5 of 6
S2Martyniuk4Kovalenko2n = 6Martyniuk took 4 of 6
S3Martyniuk4Kovalenko2n = 6Martyniuk took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMartyniukKovalenkoM − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match35.532.2+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 361 vs 299 / 56352.6%53.1%190 / 361 vs 299 / 563Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.44/Kovalenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 15 · 06:05A. Martyniuk331111113A. Kovalenko204880
LAug 31 · 06:05A. Martyniuk44117111052A. Kovalenko46611612113
WAug 25 · 16:40A. Martyniuk381116113A. Kovalenko2761470
LApr 13 · 10:35A. Martyniuk48111111872A. Kovalenko43441311113
WFeb 3 · 12:00A. Martyniuk331111113A. Kovalenko248790
LJan 19 · 07:35A. Martyniuk177280A. Kovalenko331111113
A. Martyniuk10
LOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971WOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410WOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 12:30A. Martyniuk1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.636990WOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081WOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113WOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102LOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113WSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113
A. Kovalenko10
LOct 3 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.73111112A. Kovalenko2.008810WOct 3 · 14:00A. Kovalenko2.38512114113S. Solomko1.53111091172LOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172WSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.001111113S. Solomko1.735680WSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113WSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:30A. Kovalenko2.637670O. Volynets1.441111113LSep 30 · 05:30O. Shyshman2.201313113A. Kovalenko1.61111150WSep 29 · 12:05S. Solomko1.503790A. Kovalenko2.501111113WSep 29 · 10:35A. Kovalenko3.751111113O. Volynets1.258980
Upcoming Matches
A. Martyniuk
Nothing scheduled
A. Kovalenko
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