TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Populovskyi vs Anatolii Kovalenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1168111012114511
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 19–18 Anatolii Kovalenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-18 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1395 vs Kovalenko 1455
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 20% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 30% vs Kovalenko 70%
Kovalenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi -3 · Kovalenko +1
Populovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 1.80 / Kovalenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Populovskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218383
Populovskyi1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 98 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 72 of 86
Kovalenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 32 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi80%4 of 5
AwayKovalenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Populovskyi5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Populovskyi4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Populovskyi3Kovalenko4n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S5Populovskyi3Kovalenko2n = 5Populovskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiKovalenkoP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.7−2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 692 vs 296 / 55948.6%53%336 / 692 vs 296 / 559Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiPopulovskyi 1.80/Kovalenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 11:35E. Populovskyi4312911113A. Kovalenko371011881
LSep 11 · 12:00E. Populovskyi3321511232A. Kovalenko501113411113
WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi48811411143A. Kovalenko47114119122
LSep 4 · 07:05E. Populovskyi32117771A. Kovalenko4291111113
WAug 31 · 11:35E. Populovskyi49129116113A. Kovalenko49101191182
LAug 17 · 10:35E. Populovskyi4361341192A. Kovalenko501111116113
LAug 16 · 05:50E. Populovskyi2571080A. Kovalenko341112113
WAug 10 · 09:20E. Populovskyi45111174123A. Kovalenko42731111102
LAug 7 · 05:00E. Populovskyi28108100A. Kovalenko351211123
WAug 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi331111113A. Kovalenko218940
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113LSep 30 · 07:00E. Populovskyi2.209770O. Shyshman1.611111113LSep 30 · 05:00E. Populovskyi3.4077100S. Solomko1.301111123WSep 24 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.50871381E. Populovskyi2.50111111113LSep 24 · 10:35S. Solomko1.3011611113E. Populovskyi3.40511571LSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko2.0011117113E. Populovskyi1.73841171WSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.40117101182E. Populovskyi2.75811128113WSep 24 · 05:05A. Kurtenko1.8011791192E. Populovskyi1.91411116113LSep 21 · 12:50O. Osadchyi1.28115117113E. Populovskyi3.5071151182
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:30A. Kovalenko2.637670O. Volynets1.441111113LSep 30 · 05:30O. Shyshman2.201313113A. Kovalenko1.61111150WSep 29 · 12:05S. Solomko1.503790A. Kovalenko2.501111113WSep 29 · 10:35A. Kovalenko3.751111113O. Volynets1.258980WSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113WSep 29 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.4413660A. Kovalenko2.631511103WSep 29 · 05:35I. Emets1.839117101A. Kovalenko1.8311911123LSep 28 · 12:50A. Kovalenko2.101011291O. Lipeiko1.6712911113WSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
E. Populovskyi
Nothing scheduled
A. Kovalenko
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