TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Populovskyi vs Oleksandr Osadchyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:01 and never touched: 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 74.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 6–21 Oleksandr Osadchyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 6 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0174.7%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 3.1pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-21 in 27
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 15 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1401 vs Osadchyi 1426
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 40% vs Osadchyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 30% vs Osadchyi 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi -1 · Osadchyi -3
Osadchyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 3.50 / Osadchyi 1.285
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Osadchyi)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223882
Populovskyi3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Osadchyi1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 110 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi2wins
AwayOsadchyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOsadchyi100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi2Osadchyi8n = 10Osadchyi took 8 of 10
S2Populovskyi3Osadchyi7n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S3Populovskyi1Osadchyi9n = 10Osadchyi took 9 of 10
S4Populovskyi2Osadchyi2n = 4split evenly
S5Populovskyi2Osadchyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiOsadchyiP − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.338.7−10.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 697 vs 445 / 86548.5%51.5%338 / 697 vs 445 / 865Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiPopulovskyi 3.50/Osadchyi 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 10:30E. Populovskyi238870O. Osadchyi331111113
LSep 21 · 12:50E. Populovskyi4271151182O. Osadchyi45115117113
LSep 20 · 09:50E. Populovskyi159330O. Osadchyi331111113
LSep 15 · 05:05E. Populovskyi249870O. Osadchyi331111113
WSep 13 · 07:20E. Populovskyi41121134113O. Osadchyi44107111152
LSep 3 · 04:30E. Populovskyi3831161172O. Osadchyi50119118113
LSep 2 · 05:05E. Populovskyi169340O. Osadchyi331111113
WAug 30 · 05:50E. Populovskyi47119133113O. Osadchyi47811111162
LAug 29 · 14:00E. Populovskyi144730O. Osadchyi331111113
LAug 16 · 08:50E. Populovskyi2365120O. Osadchyi361111143
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 1 · 08:05S. Solomko1.2891111113E. Populovskyi3.50115771WOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113WOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113LSep 30 · 07:00E. Populovskyi2.209770O. Shyshman1.611111113LSep 30 · 05:00E. Populovskyi3.4077100S. Solomko1.301111123WSep 24 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.50871381E. Populovskyi2.50111111113LSep 24 · 10:35S. Solomko1.3011611113E. Populovskyi3.40511571
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890LOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870WSep 30 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.381112113O. Shyshman1.5331040LSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.20861151S. Solomko1.6111119113LSep 30 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.53118111082O. Volynets2.38611912113WSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133
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