TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Emets vs Oleh Volynets 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1167111012117811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Volynets to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Oleh Volynets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oleh Volynets at 61.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 6–8 Oleh Volynets Ihor Emets has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2561.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Volynets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Volynets
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1439 vs Volynets 1450
Volynets
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 20% vs Volynets 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 30% vs Volynets 50%
Volynets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets -1 · Volynets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Volynets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volynets form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 2.375 / Volynets 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Volynets)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250614
Emets2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 50
Volynets1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 72 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it79% 30 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it63% 45 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets6wins
AwayVolynets4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVolynets50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets2Volynets8n = 10Volynets took 8 of 10
S2Emets4Volynets6n = 10Volynets took 6 of 10
S3Emets6Volynets4n = 10Emets took 6 of 10
S4Emets4Volynets3n = 7Emets took 4 of 7
S5Emets4Volynets0n = 4Emets took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsVolynetsE − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsVolynetsBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 498 vs 326 / 61651%52.9%254 / 498 vs 326 / 616Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolynetsEmets 2.38/Volynets 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Volynets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volynets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets205870O. Volynets331111113
WSep 23 · 08:30I. Emets474101111113O. Volynets4311127672
LSep 17 · 05:35I. Emets364114171O. Volynets5011911193
LSep 2 · 05:00I. Emets213990O. Volynets331111113
WAug 31 · 10:30I. Emets551261113133O. Volynets531411611112
LAug 27 · 09:05I. Emets371011971O. Volynets4212811113
WAug 25 · 09:30I. Emets47911115113O. Volynets4511991152
WAug 20 · 11:05I. Emets44291111113O. Volynets3911116742
WAug 14 · 11:50I. Emets331111113O. Volynets195590
WJul 9 · 09:30I. Emets4211911113O. Volynets24711421
I. Emets10
WOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551LSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 10:05I. Emets1.5311481172S. Solomko2.38911118113LSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets2.255870O. Volynets1.571111113WSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 05:35I. Emets1.839117101A. Kovalenko1.8311911123WSep 28 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.61881161I. Emets2.2011119113LSep 28 · 09:30I. Emets2.633640V. Bilobrov1.441111113
O. Volynets10
WOct 6 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.105240O. Volynets1.671111113LOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 5 · 10:30O. Volynets2.109580V. Kolesnykov1.671111113LOct 5 · 09:00O. Volynets1.4471090O. Leonenko2.631112113LOct 5 · 07:30O. Volynets1.40121360A. Kovalenko2.751415113WOct 5 · 06:00O. Volynets2.101111113S. Solomko1.679930WOct 5 · 04:30O. Volynets1.5711411123E. Populovskyi2.254117101WSep 30 · 11:00O. Shyshman2.50119581O. Volynets1.5071111113LSep 30 · 10:00S. Solomko2.201111113O. Volynets1.613960WSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets2.255870O. Volynets1.571111113
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