TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Emets vs Oleksandr Leonenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched: 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Ihor Emets at 65.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 18–9 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2865.2%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.1pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Emets
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1428 vs Leonenko 1480
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 20% vs Leonenko 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 30% vs Leonenko 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets -2 · Leonenko -3
Leonenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Emets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Emets form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.444 / Leonenko 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Emets)-4.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250653
Emets1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 62 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it83% 45 of 54
Leonenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets7wins
AwayLeonenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets85.7%6 of 7
AwayLeonenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets7Leonenko3n = 10Emets took 7 of 10
S2Emets6Leonenko4n = 10Emets took 6 of 10
S3Emets4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S4Emets3Leonenko2n = 5Emets took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsLeonenkoE − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.734.9+0.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 499 vs 422 / 82250.9%51.3%254 / 499 vs 422 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.44/Leonenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 07:35I. Emets239860O. Leonenko331111113
WSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets3961111113O. Leonenko37118991
WApr 23 · 07:00I. Emets521112612113O. Leonenko48910111442
WMar 9 · 09:20I. Emets331111113O. Leonenko269980
LMar 5 · 09:20I. Emets32116691O. Leonenko4071111113
WMar 2 · 12:50I. Emets381111163O. Leonenko2776140
WJan 20 · 07:00I. Emets331111113O. Leonenko259970
LDec 22 · 12:05I. Emets174580O. Leonenko331111113
WSep 30 · 11:00I. Emets48119611113O. Leonenko4691111872
WJun 19 · 11:50I. Emets4211119113O. Leonenko34781181
I. Emets10
LOct 6 · 08:30I. Emets2.38117101182O. Volynets1.53611127113LOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551LSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192LSep 29 · 10:05I. Emets1.5311481172S. Solomko2.38911118113LSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets2.255870O. Volynets1.571111113WSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 05:35I. Emets1.839117101A. Kovalenko1.8311911123WSep 28 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.61881161I. Emets2.2011119113LSep 28 · 09:30I. Emets2.633640V. Bilobrov1.441111113
O. Leonenko10
LOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.105240O. Volynets1.671111113LOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482WOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101WOct 5 · 09:00O. Volynets1.4471090O. Leonenko2.631112113WOct 5 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.20511116153S. Solomko1.61116911132LOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992WOct 5 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.73111312113A. Kovalenko2.007151061WOct 3 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.2015511113S. Solomko1.611311681WOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113
Upcoming Matches
I. Emets
Nothing scheduled
O. Leonenko
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