TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Serhii Solomko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1513511116118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Solomko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Serhii Solomko below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Serhii Solomko at 58.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 63–68 Serhii Solomko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 63 of their 131 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1558.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Solomko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
63-68 in 131
Solomko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1481 vs Solomko 1555
Solomko
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Solomko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 40% vs Solomko 70%
Solomko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +2 · Solomko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Solomko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.20 / Solomko 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Solomko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234405
Leonenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Solomko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 120 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 85 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko5wins
AwaySolomko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko75%3 of 4
AwaySolomko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S2Leonenko4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko4Solomko4n = 8split evenly
S5Leonenko3Solomko2n = 5Leonenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoSolomkoL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.9−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoSolomkoBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 820 vs 541 / 104351%51.9%418 / 820 vs 541 / 1043Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SolomkoLeonenko 2.20/Solomko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Solomko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko22721211S. Solomko43111110113
LSep 24 · 05:35O. Leonenko51811119122S. Solomko48115711143
WSep 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko504111113113S. Solomko49111351192
WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko49111168133S. Solomko45661111112
LMay 21 · 10:50O. Leonenko2471160S. Solomko351113113
LApr 23 · 05:30O. Leonenko4211781152S. Solomko43711113113
WApr 20 · 08:20O. Leonenko491161110113S. Solomko4251161282
LApr 19 · 19:50O. Leonenko237880S. Solomko331111113
WApr 16 · 06:50O. Leonenko4011126113S. Solomko305101141
O. Leonenko10
WOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172LOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081LOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko2.10721211S. Solomko1.67111110113LOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113LOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113WOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890LSep 29 · 09:00O. Leonenko6.008550Y. Volkov1.111111113
S. Solomko10
WOct 3 · 17:30E. Populovskyi4.007940S. Solomko1.221111103LOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410LOct 3 · 14:00A. Kovalenko2.38512114113S. Solomko1.53111091172WOct 3 · 12:00O. Osadchyi2.5081010S. Solomko1.501112113WOct 1 · 10:33E. Populovskyi3.7533100S. Solomko1.251111123WOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko2.10721211S. Solomko1.67111110113WOct 1 · 08:05S. Solomko1.2891111113E. Populovskyi3.50115771WOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102WOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411LSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.001111113S. Solomko1.735680
Upcoming Matches
O. Leonenko
Nothing scheduled
S. Solomko
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