TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Kolesnykov vs Oleksandr Leonenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111141012119119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 71.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 8–3 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4371.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 2.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolesnykov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Kolesnykov
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1579 vs Leonenko 1496
Kolesnykov
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 40% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 40% vs Leonenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov -1 · Leonenko +4
Leonenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kolesnykov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.363 / Leonenko 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kolesnykov)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245187
Kolesnykov1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 89 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Leonenko3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 73 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov7wins
AwayLeonenko3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolesnykov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov100%3 of 3
AwayLeonenko42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov3Leonenko7n = 10Leonenko took 7 of 10
S2Kolesnykov6Leonenko4n = 10Kolesnykov took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnykov6Leonenko4n = 10Kolesnykov took 6 of 10
S4Kolesnykov7Leonenko2n = 9Kolesnykov took 7 of 9
S5Kolesnykov4Leonenko2n = 6Kolesnykov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovLeonenkoK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.939.2+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 658 vs 420 / 82353%51%349 / 658 vs 420 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.36/Leonenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolesnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov518111011113O. Leonenko4511412992
LSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov36971191O. Leonenko3711114113
WApr 23 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov441110111113O. Leonenko4031211682
WJan 9 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov4181111113O. Leonenko26112671
WNov 1 · 21:20V. Kolesnykov331111113O. Leonenko175480
WSep 29 · 12:05V. Kolesnykov4311115163O. Leonenko377511141
LApr 27 · 19:50V. Kolesnykov4081121182O. Leonenko511111108113
LApr 24 · 09:50V. Kolesnykov4591111862O. Leonenko45115711113
WApr 21 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov47661311113O. Leonenko46111111852
WApr 9 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov49711911113O. Leonenko4811911892
V. Kolesnykov10
LOct 5 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov1.67971111102S. Solomko2.10111145123WOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.91101150V. Kolesnykov1.801213113LOct 2 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov3.50114941A. Troyan1.2871111113LOct 2 · 06:00O. Karpenko1.83591111113V. Kolesnykov1.8311118692LOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113LSep 28 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.61881161I. Emets2.2011119113WSep 28 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov1.911111113Y. Volkov1.805460LSep 28 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.50811111392V. Bilobrov2.50119715113WSep 28 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov1.61121011113A. Martyniuk2.201012731
O. Leonenko10
WOct 5 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.73111312113A. Kovalenko2.007151061WOct 3 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.2015511113S. Solomko1.611311681WOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172LOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081LOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko2.10721211S. Solomko1.67111110113LOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113LOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113
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