TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Andrii Kotiash 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012113811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Andrii Kotiash at 63.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 3–12 Andrii Kotiash Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5963.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kotiash
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-12 in 15
Kotiash
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1455 vs Kotiash 1455
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Kotiash 80%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Kotiash 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Kotiash +3
Kotiash
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kotiash) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 2.625 / Kotiash 1.444
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kotiash)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250639
Osadchyi2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 90 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Kotiash1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 30 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi2wins
AwayKotiash8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKotiash leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi16.7%1 of 6
AwayKotiash75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi6Kotiash4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi4Kotiash6n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi5Kotiash5n = 10split evenly
S4Osadchyi0Kotiash9n = 9Kotiash took 9 of 9
S5Osadchyi1Kotiash2n = 3Kotiash took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiKotiashO − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.0−3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 868 vs 217 / 46551.7%46.7%449 / 868 vs 217 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashOsadchyi 2.63/Kotiash 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Osadchyi474111110113A. Kotiash4811881292
LAug 4 · 09:05O. Osadchyi381081191A. Kotiash3912115113
LJul 4 · 05:50O. Osadchyi3651011101A. Kotiash4011125123
LJul 3 · 12:00O. Osadchyi28311681A. Kotiash4011711113
LJun 28 · 05:50O. Osadchyi4311511882A. Kotiash49911711113
LJun 27 · 12:30O. Osadchyi33129391A. Kotiash43101111113
WJun 23 · 16:40O. Osadchyi341112113A. Kotiash2691070
LMar 26 · 06:50O. Osadchyi47111161092A. Kotiash45291112113
LMar 25 · 21:50O. Osadchyi32117861A. Kotiash3961111113
LFeb 19 · 12:50O. Osadchyi351149111A. Kotiash4161111133
O. Osadchyi10
WOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi1.804880A. Kurtenko1.911111113WOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441WOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113LOct 4 · 09:50S. Solomko1.5711111113O. Osadchyi2.25491131LOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751WOct 4 · 05:50E. Populovskyi3.5010980O. Osadchyi1.281211113WOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971LOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113
A. Kotiash10
WOct 6 · 08:00A. Kotiash1.67613116113A. Kurtenko2.10111171192WOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482LOct 4 · 10:55A. Kotiash3.008940D. Palii1.361111113WOct 4 · 08:55V. Kuzmych1.5374110A. Kotiash2.381111133LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash2.2546111362I. Fashchevskyi1.581111611113LOct 4 · 06:55O. Gazhula1.61111116113A. Kotiash2.20861841LOct 4 · 05:25A. Kotiash2.0066111142M. Slozka1.73111189113LOct 3 · 18:55D. Palii1.40861111103A. Kotiash2.7511113682LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113
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