TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotiash vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4116111161311611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:50 and never touched: 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 61.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 0–2 Ivan Fashchevskyi Andrii Kotiash has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5061.5%Our read63.3%to break even at 1.58
short by 1.8pp63.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.58 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (59%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1401 vs Fashchevskyi 1476
Fashchevskyi
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Fashchevskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 30% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -4 · Fashchevskyi -2
Kotiash
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Fashchevskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.25 / Fashchevskyi 1.58
Signal prob.39% / 62%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240294
Kotiash2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 49 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back25% 21 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back15% 8 of 53
Fashchevskyi1.58
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 69 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 47 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKotiash0wins
AwayFashchevskyi2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKotiashFashchevskyiK − FBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match31.541.5−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 470 vs 315 / 64246.4%49.1%218 / 470 vs 315 / 642Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiKotiash 2.25/Fashchevskyi 1.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash4046111362I. Fashchevskyi501111611113
LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash238690I. Fashchevskyi331111113
A. Kotiash10
LOct 4 · 06:55O. Gazhula1.61111116113A. Kotiash2.20861841LOct 4 · 05:25A. Kotiash2.0066111142M. Slozka1.73111189113LOct 3 · 18:55D. Palii1.40861111103A. Kotiash2.7511113682LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 15:25M. Slozka1.509511111A. Kotiash2.5011119123WOct 3 · 13:25O. Gazhula1.5361161152A. Kotiash2.38118114113LOct 3 · 12:25V. Kuzmych1.831112123A. Kotiash1.83810100LOct 3 · 01:22A. Kotiash1.8521151182O. Gazhula1.85118119113LOct 3 · 00:15D. Palii1.57111111113A. Kotiash2.25136741WOct 2 · 22:45O. Gazhula1.57111178122A. Kotiash2.25831111143
I. Fashchevskyi10
LOct 4 · 05:55V. Kuzmych1.911115133I. Fashchevskyi1.80413110LOct 4 · 04:55O. Gazhula1.531191011113I. Fashchevskyi2.3851112972WOct 3 · 18:25M. Slozka1.6781171182I. Fashchevskyi2.10117114113WOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113LOct 3 · 15:55V. Kuzmych2.2511116113I. Fashchevskyi1.57791181LOct 3 · 13:55D. Palii1.911111113I. Fashchevskyi1.807780LOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.5311911113I. Fashchevskyi2.38811791WOct 3 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi2.2511125113D. Maltsev1.577101181WOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113LOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko1.531111113I. Fashchevskyi2.385470
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