TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Fashchevskyi vs Denys Maltsev 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210511118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Denys Maltsev at 59.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 30–34 Denys Maltsev Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 30 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5659.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-34 in 64
Maltsev
Wrong
gap of 4 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1481 vs Maltsev 1531
Maltsev
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Maltsev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 30% vs Maltsev 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +1 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Maltsev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.25 / Maltsev 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Maltsev)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228935
Fashchevskyi2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back27% 32 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Maltsev1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 110 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 67 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it75% 81 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi2wins
AwayMaltsev8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi0%0 of 4
AwayMaltsev66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi2Maltsev8n = 10Maltsev took 8 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi1Maltsev9n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Maltsev2n = 6Fashchevskyi took 4 of 6
S5Fashchevskyi1Maltsev2n = 3Maltsev took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevF − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.837.5−6.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 633 vs 468 / 91149.1%51.4%311 / 633 vs 468 / 911Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevFashchevskyi 2.25/Maltsev 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi194690D. Maltsev331111113
LSep 29 · 13:35I. Fashchevskyi4313831182D. Maltsev481111114113
LSep 28 · 23:30I. Fashchevskyi31115781D. Maltsev4071111113
WSep 24 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi47611811113D. Maltsev4011811462
LSep 22 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi35119691D. Maltsev3961111113
LSep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2371060D. Maltsev341112113
LSep 20 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi187560D. Maltsev331111113
LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi3712541152D. Maltsev511011118113
LSep 16 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi197390D. Maltsev331111113
WSep 15 · 17:05I. Fashchevskyi3631111113D. Maltsev24113641
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113LOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko1.531111113I. Fashchevskyi2.385470LOct 2 · 22:00I. Fashchevskyi2.1011671182M. Slozka1.67511118113WOct 2 · 21:00O. Storozhenko1.6781161182I. Fashchevskyi2.10119119113LSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113WSep 30 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.7511119113Y. Tebenko1.40681191LSep 30 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi2.008880I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 30 · 06:05I. Fashchevskyi2.10611531M. Slozka1.6711611113LSep 30 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.10791161O. Storozhenko1.6711119113LSep 29 · 18:05I. Fashchevskyi2.10711812142M. Slozka1.671171110163
D. Maltsev10
WOct 3 · 01:30D. Maltsev1.57131111113M. Slozka2.25158851LOct 2 · 23:30O. Storozhenko1.671111113D. Maltsev2.108780LOct 2 · 21:30I. Pytsko1.401113113D. Maltsev2.7591190LOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko1.73611144113D. Maltsev2.00116121162WSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113LSep 30 · 09:35D. Maltsev2.751210971I. Pytsko1.40101211113LSep 30 · 08:35D. Maltsev1.9110890O. Storozhenko1.801211113LSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113LSep 30 · 05:05D. Maltsev1.50881161M. Slozka2.5011117113WSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko1.8091141162D. Maltsev1.91114114113
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