TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Slozka vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117711114811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched: 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMykola Slozka to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Mykola Slozka @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingMykola Slozka above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Mykola Slozka at 59.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Slozka 22–11 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:0859.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 0.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Slozka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-11 in 33
Slozka
Wrong
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1608 vs Fashchevskyi 1477
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka +1 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Slozka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slozka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 1.666 / Fashchevskyi 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Slozka)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13234733
Slozka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it81% 55 of 68
Fashchevskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 100 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka8wins
AwayFashchevskyi2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozka85.7%6 of 7
AwayFashchevskyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Slozka took 7 of 10
S2Slozka4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S3Slozka7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Slozka took 7 of 10
S4Slozka4Fashchevskyi5n = 9Fashchevskyi took 5 of 9
S5Slozka5Fashchevskyi1n = 6Slozka took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaFashchevskyiS − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.840.0+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 770 vs 313 / 63845.6%49.1%351 / 770 vs 313 / 638Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlozkaSlozka 1.67/Fashchevskyi 2.10
Miss
What we said
59.8%
Slozka · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mykola Slozka @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 22:00M. Slozka46511118113I. Fashchevskyi4311671182
WSep 30 · 06:05M. Slozka3911611113I. Fashchevskyi25611531
WSep 29 · 18:05M. Slozka551171110163I. Fashchevskyi52711812142
LSep 26 · 17:25M. Slozka391178131I. Fashchevskyi4361111153
WSep 26 · 01:45M. Slozka44111111113I. Fashchevskyi34781361
WSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka501171110113I. Fashchevskyi4691151292
WSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka48134119113I. Fashchevskyi42111151142
WSep 4 · 23:45M. Slozka351111133I. Fashchevskyi2458110
WSep 2 · 06:05M. Slozka43641111113I. Fashchevskyi3911113682
LAug 25 · 14:05M. Slozka5912111511102I. Fashchevskyi52142177123
M. Slozka10
WOct 3 · 16:25O. Gazhula1.676116101M. Slozka2.1011611123LOct 3 · 15:25M. Slozka1.509511111A. Kotiash2.5011119123LOct 3 · 14:25V. Kuzmych2.2051211113M. Slozka1.611110371LOct 3 · 12:55M. Slozka1.67131111862D. Palii2.10158611113WOct 3 · 02:30O. Storozhenko1.67691471M. Slozka2.10111112113LOct 3 · 01:30D. Maltsev1.57131111113M. Slozka2.25158851LOct 3 · 00:00Y. Tebenko1.83111110113M. Slozka1.83751241WOct 2 · 22:00I. Fashchevskyi2.1011671182M. Slozka1.67511118113WSep 30 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.80911761M. Slozka1.9111711113LSep 30 · 10:05M. Slozka2.10148100O. Storozhenko1.671611123
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113LOct 3 · 15:55V. Kuzmych2.2511116113I. Fashchevskyi1.57791181LOct 3 · 13:55D. Palii1.911111113I. Fashchevskyi1.807780LOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.5311911113I. Fashchevskyi2.38811791WOct 3 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi2.2511125113D. Maltsev1.577101181WOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113LOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko1.531111113I. Fashchevskyi2.385470LOct 2 · 22:00I. Fashchevskyi2.1011671182M. Slozka1.67511118113WOct 2 · 21:00O. Storozhenko1.6781161182I. Fashchevskyi2.10119119113LSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113
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