TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Gazhula vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1159111012119117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:41 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Gazhula to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Gazhula above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Oleksii Gazhula at 62.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Gazhula 17–8 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Gazhula beat Fashchevskyi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4162.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gazhula
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Gazhula
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gazhula 1523 vs Fashchevskyi 1480
Gazhula
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gazhula 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gazhula 40% vs Fashchevskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gazhula +1 · Fashchevskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Gazhula) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gazhula form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGazhula 1.533 / Fashchevskyi 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Gazhula)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239695
Gazhula1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 60 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Fashchevskyi2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 101 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGazhula6wins
AwayFashchevskyi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGazhula leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGazhula85.7%6 of 7
AwayFashchevskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gazhula7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Gazhula took 7 of 10
S2Gazhula4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S3Gazhula6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Gazhula took 6 of 10
S4Gazhula6Fashchevskyi3n = 9Gazhula took 6 of 9
S5Gazhula2Fashchevskyi3n = 5Fashchevskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGazhulaFashchevskyiG − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.9+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGazhulaFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 453 vs 314 / 64048.3%49.1%219 / 453 vs 314 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GazhulaGazhula 1.53/Fashchevskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Gazhula · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gazhula won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 04:55O. Gazhula521191011113I. Fashchevskyi4451112972
WOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula4211911113I. Fashchevskyi35811791
WSep 25 · 23:45O. Gazhula331111113I. Fashchevskyi236980
LAug 9 · 10:25O. Gazhula4291131182I. Fashchevskyi45116116113
WJul 25 · 10:25O. Gazhula4111118113I. Fashchevskyi32771171
LJul 24 · 17:25O. Gazhula50119119102I. Fashchevskyi43411511123
LJul 17 · 02:15O. Gazhula4366111192I. Fashchevskyi49111197113
WJul 15 · 15:55O. Gazhula511110118113I. Fashchevskyi4471281162
WJun 26 · 16:25O. Gazhula4011513113I. Fashchevskyi365111191
LJun 26 · 00:45O. Gazhula341011671I. Fashchevskyi3812411113
O. Gazhula10
WOct 3 · 17:55O. Gazhula1.33912711113V. Kuzmych3.25111011962LOct 3 · 16:25O. Gazhula1.676116101M. Slozka2.1011611123LOct 3 · 14:55O. Gazhula2.10141191392D. Palii1.671291115113LOct 3 · 13:25O. Gazhula1.5361161152A. Kotiash2.38118114113WOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.5311911113I. Fashchevskyi2.38811791WOct 3 · 01:22A. Kotiash1.8521151182O. Gazhula1.85118119113WOct 2 · 23:45O. Sydorchuk2.251191051O. Gazhula1.5771112113LOct 2 · 22:45O. Gazhula1.57111178122A. Kotiash2.25831111143LOct 2 · 21:45V. Korobko2.001111133O. Gazhula1.7399110LOct 2 · 20:45O. Gazhula1.83961341D. Palii1.83111111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LOct 4 · 05:55V. Kuzmych1.911115133I. Fashchevskyi1.80413110WOct 3 · 18:25M. Slozka1.6781171182I. Fashchevskyi2.10117114113WOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113LOct 3 · 15:55V. Kuzmych2.2511116113I. Fashchevskyi1.57791181LOct 3 · 13:55D. Palii1.911111113I. Fashchevskyi1.807780LOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.5311911113I. Fashchevskyi2.38811791WOct 3 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi2.2511125113D. Maltsev1.577101181WOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113LOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko1.531111113I. Fashchevskyi2.385470LOct 2 · 22:00I. Fashchevskyi2.1011671182M. Slozka1.67511118113
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