TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Gazhula vs Dmytro Palii 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14121199111315911
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Gazhula above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 6-8
Point 108 set 5, 6-8 · our read held Dmytro Palii at 58.6%
108 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Oleksii Gazhula 3–3 Dmytro Palii Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:5358.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Palii
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gazhula 1520 vs Palii 1622
Palii
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gazhula 60% vs Palii 80%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gazhula 40% vs Palii 90%
Palii
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gazhula -1 · Palii +4
Palii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Palii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGazhula 2.10 / Palii 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Palii)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234531
Gazhula2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Palii1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGazhula3wins
AwayPalii3wins
Level at 3–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGazhula66.7%2 of 3
AwayPalii66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gazhula3Palii3n = 6split evenly
S2Gazhula3Palii3n = 6split evenly
S3Gazhula4Palii2n = 6Gazhula took 4 of 6
S4Gazhula1Palii2n = 3Palii took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGazhulaPaliiG − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.531.2+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGazhulaPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 452 vs 129 / 21748.2%59.5%218 / 452 vs 129 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiGazhula 2.10/Palii 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 2 · 20:45O. Gazhula32961341D. Palii44111111113
LSep 27 · 09:25O. Gazhula371111871D. Palii4381311113
LSep 26 · 13:25O. Gazhula2561090D. Palii341112113
WSep 25 · 21:15O. Gazhula331111113D. Palii225890
WJun 18 · 10:25O. Gazhula331111113D. Palii166820
WJun 17 · 18:55O. Gazhula4151114113D. Palii281111241
O. Gazhula10
LOct 3 · 13:25O. Gazhula1.5361161152A. Kotiash2.38118114113WOct 3 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.5311911113I. Fashchevskyi2.38811791WOct 3 · 01:22A. Kotiash1.8521151182O. Gazhula1.85118119113WOct 2 · 23:45O. Sydorchuk2.251191051O. Gazhula1.5771112113LOct 2 · 22:45O. Gazhula1.57111178122A. Kotiash2.25831111143LOct 2 · 21:45V. Korobko2.001111133O. Gazhula1.7399110LOct 2 · 20:45O. Gazhula1.83961341D. Palii1.83111111113LSep 27 · 10:25O. Sydorchuk2.631111113O. Gazhula1.448780LSep 27 · 09:25O. Gazhula1.611111871D. Palii2.2081311113WSep 27 · 08:25O. Gazhula1.67111148113M. Slozka2.1086111182
D. Palii10
WOct 3 · 13:55D. Palii1.911111113I. Fashchevskyi1.807780WOct 3 · 12:55M. Slozka1.67131111862D. Palii2.10158611113WOct 3 · 01:48D. Palii1.611211113V. Korobko2.2010780WOct 3 · 00:15D. Palii1.57111111113A. Kotiash2.25136741LOct 2 · 23:15V. Korobko2.751111113D. Palii1.407770WOct 2 · 22:15O. Sydorchuk2.50111267122D. Palii1.507101111143WOct 2 · 20:45O. Gazhula1.83961341D. Palii1.83111111113WSep 27 · 11:25D. Palii1.361111113I. Kvak3.009780WSep 27 · 09:25O. Gazhula1.611111871D. Palii2.2081311113WSep 27 · 07:25O. Sydorchuk2.00861141D. Palii1.7311114113
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