TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotiash vs Andrii Kurtenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111311117611119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Andrii Kotiash at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–6 Andrii Kurtenko Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5654.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kotiash
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1443 vs Kurtenko 1472
Kurtenko
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 60% vs Kurtenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 40% vs Kurtenko 60%
Kurtenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash +2 · Kurtenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kotiash) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.666 / Kurtenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotiash)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250658
Kotiash1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 30 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Kurtenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash5wins
AwayKurtenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash66.7%4 of 6
AwayKurtenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash6Kurtenko4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S2Kotiash7Kurtenko3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S3Kotiash5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kotiash2Kurtenko5n = 7Kurtenko took 5 of 7
S5Kotiash2Kurtenko3n = 5Kurtenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKurtenkoKotiash − KurtenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.9−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 464 vs 354 / 67646.6%52.4%216 / 464 vs 354 / 676Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.67/Kurtenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 08:50A. Kotiash4031114123A. Kurtenko3611312101
LMar 25 · 18:50A. Kotiash33871351A. Kurtenko44111111113
WMar 7 · 18:50A. Kotiash50121179113A. Kurtenko47109111162
WJan 29 · 06:50A. Kotiash53161196113A. Kurtenko51149111162
LDec 13 · 09:05A. Kotiash2615830A. Kurtenko391711113
LDec 11 · 15:40A. Kotiash4714129842A. Kurtenko5512101111113
WMay 8 · 08:00A. Kotiash331111113A. Kurtenko215790
WMay 6 · 08:30A. Kotiash351111133A. Kurtenko1843110
LApr 29 · 04:30A. Kotiash43711111042A. Kurtenko46116612113
LApr 28 · 06:35A. Kotiash4514851172A. Kurtenko521211117113
A. Kotiash10
WOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482LOct 4 · 10:55A. Kotiash3.008940D. Palii1.361111113WOct 4 · 08:55V. Kuzmych1.5374110A. Kotiash2.381111133LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash2.2546111362I. Fashchevskyi1.581111611113LOct 4 · 06:55O. Gazhula1.61111116113A. Kotiash2.20861841LOct 4 · 05:25A. Kotiash2.0066111142M. Slozka1.73111189113LOct 3 · 18:55D. Palii1.40861111103A. Kotiash2.7511113682LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113
A. Kurtenko10
WOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi1.804880A. Kurtenko1.911111113LOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551WOct 4 · 12:50A. Kurtenko2.00101211113A. Kovalenko1.731210741WOct 4 · 10:50S. Solomko1.801295101A. Kurtenko1.91101111123LOct 4 · 08:50E. Populovskyi1.831814511113A. Kurtenko1.83201211782WOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751LOct 4 · 06:50A. Martyniuk1.36111011113A. Kurtenko3.00712971WSep 27 · 11:19A. Kurtenko1.9111411973S. Solomko1.8091181152WSep 27 · 09:20O. Osadchyi1.737111381A. Kurtenko2.00111311113LSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123
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