TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Andrii Kurtenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71111131311811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 55.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 49–34 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kurtenko has won 34 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-34 in 83
Osadchyi
Wrong
gap of 15 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1514 vs Kurtenko 1426
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Kurtenko 20%
Osadchyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kurtenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Kurtenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.73 / Kurtenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Osadchyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13202817
Osadchyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 110 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it81% 78 of 96
Kurtenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi7wins
AwayKurtenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi71.4%5 of 7
AwayKurtenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi7Kurtenko3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S2Osadchyi3Kurtenko7n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S3Osadchyi8Kurtenko2n = 10Osadchyi took 8 of 10
S4Osadchyi4Kurtenko3n = 7Osadchyi took 4 of 7
S5Osadchyi2Kurtenko1n = 3Osadchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoO − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.4+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 860 vs 353 / 67751.6%52.1%444 / 860 vs 353 / 677Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.73/Kurtenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 16:30O. Osadchyi559131111113A. Kurtenko4411157472
LSep 22 · 08:05O. Osadchyi218670A. Kurtenko331111113
WSep 21 · 08:50O. Osadchyi551161611113A. Kurtenko56911141392
WSep 20 · 10:50O. Osadchyi331111113A. Kurtenko217770
WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi341112113A. Kurtenko2561090
LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi28114671A. Kurtenko3961111113
WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi4181111113A. Kurtenko27114571
WSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi4111711123A. Kurtenko326115101
WAug 16 · 12:50O. Osadchyi4411616113A. Kurtenko407111481
LAug 9 · 11:23O. Osadchyi57111315992A. Kurtenko577151311113
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 27 · 10:20O. Osadchyi2.102450S. Solomko1.671111113LSep 27 · 07:50O. Osadchyi1.9171111992O. Tymofeev1.80117511113WSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162WSep 26 · 16:30A. Kurtenko2.0011157472O. Osadchyi1.739131111113LSep 26 · 15:30O. Osadchyi2.207960S. Solomko1.611111113WSep 26 · 14:30B. Zaika3.5013450O. Osadchyi1.28151163LSep 26 · 13:00O. Osadchyi1.837117101O. Tymofeev1.8311911123LSep 22 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.73157111042I. Emets2.001311712113LSep 22 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.7351181152O. Leonenko2.00118117113
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123WSep 27 · 07:20S. Solomko1.801191211102A. Kurtenko1.911311108123LSep 27 · 06:20A. Kurtenko2.6312119121O. Tymofeev1.4414511143LSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 16:30A. Kurtenko2.0011157472O. Osadchyi1.739131111113WSep 26 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.63129111153O. Tymofeev1.4414119822WSep 26 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.9111117103S. Solomko1.80671171LSep 26 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.57101181292D. Patalakha2.251241110103LSep 24 · 11:05A. Kurtenko1.67811111292O. Leonenko2.10116414113LSep 24 · 09:35A. Kurtenko1.8311815992O. Lipeiko1.839111311113
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