TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Oleksandr Leonenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511118811117511
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 48–55 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 48 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-55 in 103
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1510 vs Leonenko 1511
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Leonenko 60%
Leonenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 60% vs Leonenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -2 · Leonenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.73 / Leonenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Osadchyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172740
Osadchyi1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 108 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it82% 78 of 95
Leonenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi7wins
AwayLeonenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi85.7%6 of 7
AwayLeonenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi7Leonenko3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S2Osadchyi6Leonenko4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi5Leonenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Osadchyi5Leonenko2n = 7Osadchyi took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiLeonenkoO − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.6+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 858 vs 426 / 82551.6%51.6%443 / 858 vs 426 / 825Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.73/Leonenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 10:50O. Osadchyi501113101152O. Leonenko53915126113
WSep 17 · 11:35O. Osadchyi5112813183O. Leonenko48101111161
LJun 11 · 10:20O. Osadchyi4413911111O. Leonenko4615117133
WJun 10 · 21:20O. Osadchyi521211117113O. Leonenko4914981172
WJun 7 · 21:20O. Osadchyi3811115113O. Leonenko33671191
WJun 3 · 15:50O. Osadchyi331111113O. Leonenko182790
LMay 24 · 16:50O. Osadchyi39131790O. Leonenko451519113
WMay 21 · 09:50O. Osadchyi43111110113O. Leonenko33861271
WMay 20 · 16:50O. Osadchyi361212123O. Leonenko301010100
WMay 18 · 07:20O. Osadchyi4211119113O. Leonenko31661181
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 22 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.678670A. Kurtenko2.101111113LSep 22 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.571111111092F. Voinarovskyi2.25139512113WSep 22 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.501111113A. Kovalenko2.505860WSep 21 · 12:50O. Osadchyi1.28115117113E. Populovskyi3.5071151182LSep 21 · 10:50O. Leonenko1.91915126113O. Osadchyi1.801113101152WSep 21 · 08:50A. Kurtenko2.25911141392O. Osadchyi1.571161611113WSep 21 · 07:50O. Osadchyi2.101111133S. Solomko1.6737110LSep 21 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.801111113O. Osadchyi1.918630WSep 20 · 11:50A. Kotiash1.4011881292O. Osadchyi2.754111110113WSep 20 · 10:50O. Osadchyi1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.207770
O. Leonenko10
WSep 22 · 08:35O. Leonenko2.001111113F. Voinarovskyi1.739660WSep 22 · 07:35I. Emets1.449860O. Leonenko2.631111113LSep 22 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.00311791A. Kurtenko1.7311311113LSep 21 · 11:50A. Kurtenko1.8011115113O. Leonenko1.91881131WSep 21 · 10:50O. Leonenko1.91915126113O. Osadchyi1.801113101152WSep 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko2.204111113113S. Solomko1.61111351192LSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko2.2571111113E. Populovskyi1.57115881LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113
Upcoming Matches
O. Osadchyi
O. Leonenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.