TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811811118113119
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:44 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 59.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 9–6 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4459.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Leonenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1478 vs Stetsenko 1491
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 40% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +2 · Stetsenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Leonenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.571 / Stetsenko 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Leonenko)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260975
Leonenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 87 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it78% 49 of 63
Stetsenko2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko6wins
AwayStetsenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko100%5 of 5
AwayStetsenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Leonenko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko7Stetsenko2n = 9Leonenko took 7 of 9
S4Leonenko4Stetsenko1n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoStetsenkoL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.433.7+1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 823 vs 455 / 86751.3%52.5%422 / 823 vs 455 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.57/Stetsenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko331111113M. Stetsenko259790
WSep 3 · 10:20O. Leonenko4211811123M. Stetsenko379117101
LAug 30 · 15:30O. Leonenko218850M. Stetsenko331111113
WAug 27 · 10:20O. Leonenko44621211133M. Stetsenko501111107112
WAug 20 · 09:50O. Leonenko331111113M. Stetsenko197480
WAug 17 · 08:20O. Leonenko331111113M. Stetsenko165560
WAug 14 · 09:00O. Leonenko43111011113M. Stetsenko31512681
LJul 2 · 09:50O. Leonenko24711511M. Stetsenko4111811113
LJun 29 · 05:50O. Leonenko4697111362M. Stetsenko511111711113
O. Leonenko10
WOct 8 · 07:20O. Leonenko2.20611128113S. Solomko1.61117101142WOct 8 · 05:50O. Leonenko3.0051111113O. Volynets1.36119741LOct 6 · 11:30O. Leonenko2.10111951A. Kurtenko1.6711611113LOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.105240O. Volynets1.671111113LOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482WOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101WOct 5 · 09:00O. Volynets1.4471090O. Leonenko2.631112113WOct 5 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.20511116153S. Solomko1.61116911132
M. Stetsenko10
LOct 8 · 07:50M. Stetsenko2.00119791O. Volynets1.7381111113WOct 8 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.3379150M. Stetsenko3.251111173WOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113WOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 5 · 07:50V. Melnykov2.6311681152M. Stetsenko1.44811117113LOct 5 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.251114810133M. Stetsenko1.578121112112WOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 16:00S. Baranskyi2.0011613752M. Stetsenko1.739111111113
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