TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ovsiienko vs Maksym Stetsenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711511––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:43 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 63.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 73–65 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 65 of their 138 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4363.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-65 in 138
Ovsiienko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 138, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1378 vs Stetsenko 1459
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 60% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Stetsenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko +2 · Stetsenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Stetsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 2.50 / Stetsenko 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Stetsenko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245108
Ovsiienko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 77
Stetsenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 119 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it97% 71 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it89% 92 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvsiienko3wins
AwayStetsenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko50%2 of 4
AwayStetsenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Ovsiienko3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S3Ovsiienko5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovsiienko5Stetsenko1n = 6Ovsiienko took 5 of 6
S5Ovsiienko0Stetsenko4n = 4Stetsenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoStetsenkoO − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.438.5−5.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 897 vs 455 / 87051.5%52.3%462 / 897 vs 455 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoOvsiienko 2.50/Stetsenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko135710M. Stetsenko331111113
LOct 1 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko159330M. Stetsenko331111113
LSep 30 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko153750M. Stetsenko331111113
LSep 27 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko4111581162M. Stetsenko46511118113
LSep 24 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko4997111392M. Stetsenko511111711113
LSep 23 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko4515114872M. Stetsenko531371111113
LSep 21 · 11:35O. Ovsiienko4478131242M. Stetsenko5411111110113
WSep 19 · 04:30O. Ovsiienko4291111113M. Stetsenko28116471
WSep 17 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko3711211133M. Stetsenko388118111
WSep 14 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko331111113M. Stetsenko165830
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130WOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko1.83136114123O. Mytsyk1.831111611102LOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 15:30O. Mytsyk1.83911871O. Ovsiienko1.8311311113LOct 4 · 13:30V. Nechai2.2511911113O. Ovsiienko1.57811981LOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113LOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760
M. Stetsenko10
WOct 5 · 07:50V. Melnykov2.6311681152M. Stetsenko1.44811117113LOct 5 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.251114810133M. Stetsenko1.578121112112WOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 16:00S. Baranskyi2.0011613752M. Stetsenko1.739111111113LOct 4 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.38611811113M. Stetsenko1.5311811582LOct 4 · 12:00V. Nechai2.10119115113M. Stetsenko1.6721181192LOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.6311119113M. Stetsenko1.44781191WOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:20D. Ponomarenko1.5071111113M. Stetsenko2.50117771
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