TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ovsiienko vs Oleksandr Lipeiko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191513––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:11 and never touched: 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Oleksandr Lipeiko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 68 set 3, 15-13 · our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 71.2%
68 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 2–4 Oleksandr Lipeiko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1171.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 2.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lipeiko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Lipeiko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1378 vs Lipeiko 1386
Lipeiko
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Lipeiko 20%
Ovsiienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Lipeiko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko +1 · Lipeiko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Lipeiko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lipeiko form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 3.00 / Lipeiko 1.363
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Lipeiko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245160
Ovsiienko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 77
Lipeiko1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 62 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOvsiienko2wins
AwayLipeiko4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLipeiko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLipeiko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko2Lipeiko4n = 6Lipeiko took 4 of 6
S2Ovsiienko3Lipeiko3n = 6split evenly
S3Ovsiienko3Lipeiko3n = 6split evenly
S4Ovsiienko1Lipeiko3n = 4Lipeiko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoLipeikoO − LBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match34.840.0−5.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoLipeikoBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 897 vs 253 / 52751.5%48%462 / 897 vs 253 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoOvsiienko 3.00/Lipeiko 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.2%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko371111153O. Lipeiko3199130
LSep 23 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko28711371O. Lipeiko4011711113
WSep 20 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko529101111113O. Lipeiko4711127982
LSep 17 · 12:20O. Ovsiienko197930O. Lipeiko331111113
LSep 7 · 11:35O. Ovsiienko4211119652O. Lipeiko46761111113
LAug 24 · 12:20O. Ovsiienko31851261O. Lipeiko43111110113
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko1.83136114123O. Mytsyk1.831111611102LOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 15:30O. Mytsyk1.83911871O. Ovsiienko1.8311311113LOct 4 · 13:30V. Nechai2.2511911113O. Ovsiienko1.57811981LOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113LOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760WOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113
O. Lipeiko10
LOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113LOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.6112911121V. Melnykov2.2014119143LSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113WSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113LSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.001111111162S. Solomko1.73139813113WSep 28 · 12:50A. Kovalenko2.101011291O. Lipeiko1.6712911113LSep 28 · 11:20O. Lipeiko1.36115671M. Stetsenko3.0091111113LSep 28 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.9111117133O. Lipeiko1.803511111
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