TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lipeiko vs Volodymyr Melnykov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12149111191214––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Volodymyr Melnykov below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 92 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 58.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 15–17 Volodymyr Melnykov Oleksandr Lipeiko has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4358.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lipeiko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Melnykov
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1401 vs Melnykov 1392
Lipeiko
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 20% vs Melnykov 60%
Melnykov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 30% vs Melnykov 60%
Melnykov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko -1 · Melnykov +3
Melnykov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Lipeiko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnykov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.615 / Melnykov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lipeiko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245152
Lipeiko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 62 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Melnykov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 58 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back21% 20 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLipeiko7wins
AwayMelnykov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLipeiko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko83.3%5 of 6
AwayMelnykov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko6Melnykov4n = 10Lipeiko took 6 of 10
S2Lipeiko7Melnykov3n = 10Lipeiko took 7 of 10
S3Lipeiko8Melnykov2n = 10Lipeiko took 8 of 10
S4Lipeiko3Melnykov2n = 5Lipeiko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLipeikoMelnykovL − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.431.6+5.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoMelnykovBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 526 vs 249 / 54148.1%46%253 / 526 vs 249 / 541Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoLipeiko 1.61/Melnykov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko4412911121V. Melnykov4814119143
LSep 28 · 06:20O. Lipeiko236980V. Melnykov331111113
WAug 24 · 06:50O. Lipeiko4211812113V. Melnykov378111081
WAug 8 · 12:00O. Lipeiko331111113V. Melnykov185580
WJun 29 · 08:20O. Lipeiko361111143V. Melnykov2549120
WJun 25 · 10:20O. Lipeiko4591111143V. Melnykov351184121
WJun 24 · 01:10O. Lipeiko4181111113V. Melnykov28114941
LJun 1 · 09:20O. Lipeiko43111110292V. Melnykov48771211113
WMay 28 · 06:50O. Lipeiko341111123V. Melnykov2459100
WMay 23 · 14:50O. Lipeiko331111113V. Melnykov206950
O. Lipeiko10
LSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113WSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113LSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.001111111162S. Solomko1.73139813113WSep 28 · 12:50A. Kovalenko2.101011291O. Lipeiko1.6712911113LSep 28 · 11:20O. Lipeiko1.36115671M. Stetsenko3.0091111113LSep 28 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.9111117133O. Lipeiko1.803511111WSep 28 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5011111211162O. Lipeiko1.50713149183LSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980
V. Melnykov10
WOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113WOct 1 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.25391111113O. Mytsyk1.5711113652WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760LOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113LOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113WSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980
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