TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Volodymyr Melnykov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511311811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Melnykov to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Volodymyr Melnykov @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Volodymyr Melnykov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 49 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Volodymyr Melnykov at 54.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 44–44 Volodymyr Melnykov Dead even across their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:3954.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 8.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Melnykov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-44 in 88
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1294 vs Melnykov 1368
Melnykov
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 0% vs Melnykov 60%
Melnykov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Melnykov 50%
Melnykov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -5 · Melnykov +2
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Melnykov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.25 / Melnykov 1.571
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Melnykov)-8.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223579
Skhabitskiy2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Melnykov1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it72% 41 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayMelnykov7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnykov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiyn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnykov70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy0Melnykov10n = 10Melnykov took 10 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy8Melnykov2n = 10Skhabitskiy took 8 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy2Melnykov8n = 10Melnykov took 8 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy4Melnykov4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyMelnykovS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match34.739.3−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyMelnykovBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 1080 vs 253 / 54943.8%46.1%473 / 1080 vs 253 / 549Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnykovSkhabitskiy 2.25/Melnykov 1.57
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Melnykov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Volodymyr Melnykov @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy32911931V. Melnykov4211911113
WSep 27 · 15:00S. Skhabitskiy3851111113V. Melnykov35118791
LSep 25 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy389118101V. Melnykov4211811123
LSep 24 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy239590V. Melnykov331111113
WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy3851111113V. Melnykov30117841
WAug 24 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy45511711113V. Melnykov4611911872
LAug 10 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy35911871V. Melnykov4111811113
LAug 7 · 06:30S. Skhabitskiy51111191192V. Melnykov52138119113
LAug 3 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy25511811V. Melnykov3811511113
LJul 31 · 05:30S. Skhabitskiy2210840V. Melnykov341211113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LOct 1 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.531141591D. Ponomarenko2.3881117113LOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113LOct 1 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.251011871M. Stetsenko1.5712711113LOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113LSep 30 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.003190M. Stetsenko1.731111113WSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123LSep 30 · 15:00O. Mytsyk1.7391111113S. Skhabitskiy2.00117581WSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.10611516123O. Ovsiienko1.671181114102LSep 30 · 13:00V. Smyk1.7311111013113S. Skhabitskiy2.0073121532LSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113
V. Melnykov10
WOct 1 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.25391111113O. Mytsyk1.5711113652WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760LOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113LOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113WSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980LSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113
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