TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Melnykov vs Oleksandr Mytsyk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311911113116115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 81 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 59.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 31–47 Oleksandr Mytsyk Volodymyr Melnykov has won 31 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3959.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mytsyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-47 in 78
Mytsyk
Wrong
gap of 16 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1356 vs Mytsyk 1387
Mytsyk
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Mytsyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Mytsyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov +1 · Mytsyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Mytsyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.25 / Mytsyk 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Mytsyk)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223993
Melnykov2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Mytsyk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 159 of 288
Up 2–0, closes it89% 72 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it79% 117 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov3wins
AwayMytsyk7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMytsyk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov25%1 of 4
AwayMytsyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov4Mytsyk6n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S2Melnykov4Mytsyk6n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S3Melnykov5Mytsyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Melnykov4Mytsyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Melnykov2Mytsyk3n = 5Mytsyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovMytsykMelnykov − MytsykBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.344.3−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 548 vs 536 / 107646%49.8%252 / 548 vs 536 / 1076Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykMelnykov 2.25/Mytsyk 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2110470O. Mytsyk341211113
WSep 25 · 10:05V. Melnykov371111153O. Mytsyk2878130
LSep 24 · 06:50V. Melnykov27721261O. Mytsyk43111110113
LSep 7 · 06:50V. Melnykov5311101111102O. Mytsyk46212713123
LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov47111410482O. Mytsyk559121211113
WAug 27 · 08:00V. Melnykov558111015113O. Mytsyk48118121342
LAug 26 · 18:00V. Melnykov50811121182O. Mytsyk53118149113
LJul 31 · 07:00V. Melnykov32861261O. Mytsyk43111110113
WJul 27 · 07:50V. Melnykov50691212113O. Mytsyk491111101072
V. Melnykov10
WOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760LOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113LOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113WSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980LSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113
O. Mytsyk10
WOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113LOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 06:50D. Ponomarenko1.808670O. Mytsyk1.911111113LSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113LSep 30 · 16:30O. Mytsyk1.73127691V. Smyk2.00101111113WSep 30 · 15:00O. Mytsyk1.7391111113S. Skhabitskiy2.00117581LSep 30 · 13:30O. Mytsyk2.256611131M. Stetsenko1.5711118153WSep 30 · 12:00O. Mytsyk1.911411113O. Ovsiienko1.8012660LSep 28 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.006970M. Stetsenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113
Upcoming Matches
V. Melnykov
Nothing scheduled
O. Mytsyk
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