TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Melnykov vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117116––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 60.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 4–6 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4860.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Ovsiienko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1341 vs Ovsiienko 1396
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 40% vs Ovsiienko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -2 · Ovsiienko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Ovsiienko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.25 / Ovsiienko 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223694
Melnykov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Ovsiienko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 137 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it85% 109 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov4wins
AwayOvsiienko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov75%3 of 4
AwayOvsiienko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S2Melnykov3Ovsiienko7n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S3Melnykov4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S4Melnykov2Ovsiienko5n = 7Ovsiienko took 5 of 7
S5Melnykov3Ovsiienko1n = 4Melnykov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoM − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.6−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 547 vs 460 / 88945.9%51.7%251 / 547 vs 460 / 889Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoMelnykov 2.25/Ovsiienko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 12:00V. Melnykov333811111O. Ovsiienko3811113133
LSep 25 · 05:35V. Melnykov571110179102O. Ovsiienko599121511123
WSep 24 · 09:20V. Melnykov511111126113O. Ovsiienko5189141192
WSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3811115113O. Ovsiienko35871191
LSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov36981181O. Ovsiienko4011117113
LAug 27 · 11:30V. Melnykov246990O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 26 · 12:30V. Melnykov91440O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 24 · 07:50V. Melnykov198290O. Ovsiienko331111113
WJul 19 · 12:00V. Melnykov51911911113O. Ovsiienko4311511792
WJul 5 · 18:30V. Melnykov51119146113O. Ovsiienko51911121182
V. Melnykov10
LOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113LOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113WSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980LSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113WSep 27 · 16:30V. Melnykov1.8313116113V. Smyk1.831151121LSep 27 · 15:00V. Melnykov1.73118791S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113LSep 30 · 18:30V. Smyk1.501111113O. Ovsiienko2.505550LSep 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.831111113O. Ovsiienko1.833750LSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.10611516123O. Ovsiienko1.671181114102LSep 30 · 12:00O. Mytsyk1.911411113O. Ovsiienko1.8012660LSep 27 · 18:30V. Smyk1.5011811203O. Ovsiienko2.503118181LSep 27 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.83511118113O. Ovsiienko1.8311581162WSep 27 · 16:00D. Ponomarenko3.7511970O. Ovsiienko1.251311113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.