TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111851116141210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Ovsiienko @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 58.6%
104 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 17–11 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:4558.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1322 vs Ovsiienko 1423
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 0% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 30% vs Ovsiienko 60%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -6 · Ovsiienko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Ovsiienko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.10 / Ovsiienko 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219019
Skhabitskiy2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Ovsiienko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 137 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it86% 109 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayOvsiienko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy66.7%2 of 3
AwayOvsiienko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy3Ovsiienko7n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy3Ovsiienko7n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy5Ovsiienko5n = 10split evenly
S4Skhabitskiy3Ovsiienko3n = 6split evenly
S5Skhabitskiy1Ovsiienko2n = 3Ovsiienko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.438.2−6.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1072 vs 459 / 88543.9%51.9%471 / 1072 vs 459 / 885Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoSkhabitskiy 2.10/Ovsiienko 1.67
Miss
What we said
58.6%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Ovsiienko @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy4351311772O. Ovsiienko511111711113
LSep 25 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy35119691O. Ovsiienko4291111113
LSep 24 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy3948111152O. Ovsiienko47111168113
WSep 23 · 16:30S. Skhabitskiy48691111113O. Ovsiienko4411118862
LSep 21 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy61140O. Ovsiienko331111113
LSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy22441131O. Ovsiienko4211119113
LSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy227870O. Ovsiienko331111113
WSep 17 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy48111313113O. Ovsiienko363111571
LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy186930O. Ovsiienko331111113
WAug 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy331111113O. Ovsiienko213990
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 30 · 15:00O. Mytsyk1.7391111113S. Skhabitskiy2.00117581LSep 30 · 13:00V. Smyk1.7311111013113S. Skhabitskiy2.0073121532LSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.005990O. Mytsyk1.731111113LSep 28 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.50881171A. Kovalenko1.5011114113LSep 28 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5011111211162O. Lipeiko1.50713149183LSep 28 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.83118941M. Stetsenko1.8351111113WSep 27 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0011136113M. Stetsenko1.738111181WSep 27 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2.50115881S. Skhabitskiy1.5061111113WSep 27 · 15:00V. Melnykov1.73118791S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 30 · 12:00O. Mytsyk1.911411113O. Ovsiienko1.8012660LSep 27 · 18:30V. Smyk1.5011811203O. Ovsiienko2.503118181LSep 27 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.83511118113O. Ovsiienko1.8311581162WSep 27 · 16:00D. Ponomarenko3.7511970O. Ovsiienko1.251311113WSep 27 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0051311772O. Ovsiienko1.731111711113WSep 27 · 12:00V. Melnykov2.203811111O. Ovsiienko1.6111113133WSep 25 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.917560O. Ovsiienko1.801111113LSep 25 · 10:35O. Ovsiienko2.6397111192V. Korniichuk1.44111169113WSep 25 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.91119691O. Ovsiienko1.8091111113WSep 25 · 06:35V. Mukhin3.757360O. Ovsiienko1.251111113
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