TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311611118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 18–15 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-15 in 33
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1360 vs Stetsenko 1373
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 60% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Stetsenko 60%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +2 · Stetsenko +3
Stetsenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.00 / Stetsenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stetsenko)+0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13202756
Skhabitskiy2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 95 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 75
Stetsenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it97% 68 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy4wins
AwayStetsenko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy50%2 of 4
AwayStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Skhabitskiy5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Skhabitskiy3Stetsenko4n = 7Stetsenko took 4 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy2Stetsenko3n = 5Stetsenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoSkhabitskiy − StetsenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.340.8−3.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 1071 vs 448 / 86344.2%51.9%473 / 1071 vs 448 / 863Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoSkhabitskiy 2.00/Stetsenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy4111136113M. Stetsenko388111181
WSep 24 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy47771111113M. Stetsenko4211119562
LSep 23 · 12:00S. Skhabitskiy30128100M. Stetsenko371411123
WSep 21 · 10:35S. Skhabitskiy351311113M. Stetsenko2511680
LSep 19 · 10:30S. Skhabitskiy1910540M. Stetsenko341211113
LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3921111962M. Stetsenko49118811113
LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy41111141052M. Stetsenko51891112113
LAug 30 · 17:30S. Skhabitskiy31119831M. Stetsenko4071111113
WAug 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy50711118133M. Stetsenko45119311112
LAug 24 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy4059111142M. Stetsenko47111195113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 27 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2.50115881S. Skhabitskiy1.5061111113WSep 27 · 15:00V. Melnykov1.73118791S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113LSep 27 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0051311772O. Ovsiienko1.731111711113LSep 27 · 13:00V. Smyk1.73581111113S. Skhabitskiy2.0011118482WSep 25 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy1.731112113V. Korniichuk2.0051080WSep 25 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.50671191S. Skhabitskiy1.1711118113LSep 25 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.91119691O. Ovsiienko1.8091111113LSep 25 · 07:35V. Melnykov1.7311811123S. Skhabitskiy2.009118101LSep 25 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy2.101147111O. Mytsyk1.6791111133LSep 24 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.20311871A. Kovalenko1.6111211113
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 27 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.83511118113O. Ovsiienko1.8311581162WSep 27 · 15:30V. Smyk1.61911118122M. Stetsenko2.20115711143WSep 27 · 13:30V. Melnykov2.75712511112M. Stetsenko1.401110117133LSep 27 · 12:30D. Ponomarenko1.57119118113M. Stetsenko2.2561191172WSep 24 · 12:20V. Melnykov2.504890M. Stetsenko1.501111113WSep 24 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko1.8397111392M. Stetsenko1.831111711113LSep 24 · 09:50A. Kovalenko1.361111113M. Stetsenko3.008970LSep 24 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.201211113M. Stetsenko1.6110730LSep 24 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10771111113M. Stetsenko1.6711119562WSep 23 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko1.8315114872M. Stetsenko1.831371111113
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