TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Melnykov vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911117611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 0–2 Dmytro Ponomarenko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1351 vs Ponomarenko 1395
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Ponomarenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 40% vs Ponomarenko 70%
Ponomarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -1 · Ponomarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.00 / Ponomarenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223790
Melnykov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Ponomarenko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 22 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelnykov0wins
AwayPonomarenko2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMelnykovPonomarenkoM − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match40.044.5−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 546 vs 44 / 10146%43.6%251 / 546 vs 44 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoMelnykov 2.00/Ponomarenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov4591111772D. Ponomarenko46115811113
LAug 3 · 06:20V. Melnykov355119101D. Ponomarenko4311911123
V. Melnykov10
WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760LOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.007590A. Kovalenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180LSep 28 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.2510470O. Mytsyk1.571211113WSep 28 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.501111113O. Lipeiko1.506980LSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113WSep 27 · 16:30V. Melnykov1.8313116113V. Smyk1.831151121LSep 27 · 15:00V. Melnykov1.73118791S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113
D. Ponomarenko10
WOct 1 · 09:20D. Ponomarenko1.5071111113M. Stetsenko2.50117771LOct 1 · 06:50D. Ponomarenko1.808670O. Mytsyk1.911111113WSep 30 · 10:25D. Ponomarenko1.3311814113V. Hel3.258111271WSep 30 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.73119911113D. Kasian2.0061111942LSep 30 · 07:25D. Ponomarenko1.83811891V. Kheresko1.8311211113WSep 30 · 05:55D. Ponomarenko2.001114113D. Kozoriz1.7351230WSep 30 · 04:25D. Ponomarenko1.531111133S. Kryvoshyi2.3857110WSep 29 · 18:55S. Kryvoshyi2.001114891D. Ponomarenko1.7391611113WSep 29 · 17:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111133V. Hel1.8348110WSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113
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