TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ovsiienko vs Oleksandr Mytsyk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13116111164111210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 17–16 Oleksandr Mytsyk Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mytsyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1363 vs Mytsyk 1377
Mytsyk
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 20% vs Mytsyk 40%
Mytsyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Mytsyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko -2 · Mytsyk -3
Mytsyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mytsyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 1.833 / Mytsyk 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mytsyk)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245149
Ovsiienko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Mytsyk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvsiienko6wins
AwayMytsyk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko100%4 of 4
AwayMytsyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko4Mytsyk6n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S2Ovsiienko3Mytsyk7n = 10Mytsyk took 7 of 10
S3Ovsiienko8Mytsyk2n = 10Ovsiienko took 8 of 10
S4Ovsiienko4Mytsyk3n = 7Ovsiienko took 4 of 7
S5Ovsiienko3Mytsyk2n = 5Ovsiienko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoMytsykO − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.942.5−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 896 vs 535 / 107551.5%49.8%461 / 896 vs 535 / 1075Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykOvsiienko 1.83/Mytsyk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko46136114123O. Mytsyk491111611102
WOct 4 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko3611311113O. Mytsyk35911871
WOct 1 · 07:50O. Ovsiienko521211117113O. Mytsyk4914791182
LSep 30 · 12:00O. Ovsiienko2412660O. Mytsyk361411113
WSep 25 · 12:05O. Ovsiienko331111113O. Mytsyk187560
WSep 24 · 12:50O. Ovsiienko54971611113O. Mytsyk53111114982
LSep 21 · 06:05O. Ovsiienko4271114822O. Mytsyk541191211113
LSep 17 · 07:50O. Ovsiienko49361316112O. Mytsyk6011111114133
WSep 14 · 07:50O. Ovsiienko4012611113O. Mytsyk351011861
LSep 13 · 16:00O. Ovsiienko23102110O. Mytsyk361211133
O. Ovsiienko10
LOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 15:30O. Mytsyk1.83911871O. Ovsiienko1.8311311113LOct 4 · 13:30V. Nechai2.2511911113O. Ovsiienko1.57811981LOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113LOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760WOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113
O. Mytsyk10
WOct 5 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.109490O. Mytsyk1.671111113LOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113LOct 4 · 16:30V. Nechai2.0011711113O. Mytsyk1.73411981LOct 4 · 15:30O. Mytsyk1.83911871O. Ovsiienko1.8311311113WOct 4 · 14:30S. Baranskyi1.7311751162O. Mytsyk2.00411117113WOct 4 · 13:00O. Mytsyk1.6181111113S. Skhabitskiy2.20118931WOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.6311119113M. Stetsenko1.44781191LOct 1 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.25391111113O. Mytsyk1.5711113652WOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113LOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113
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