TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Baranskyi vs Oleksandr Mytsyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114711511117611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Baranskyi above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 54.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Baranskyi 2–1 Oleksandr Mytsyk Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2954.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baranskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baranskyi 1403 vs Mytsyk 1399
Baranskyi
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baranskyi 60% vs Mytsyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baranskyi 30% vs Mytsyk 50%
Mytsyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baranskyi +2 · Mytsyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Baranskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaranskyi 1.727 / Mytsyk 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Baranskyi)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240477
Baranskyi1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 27 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Mytsyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 55 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaranskyi2wins
AwayMytsyk1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBaranskyi leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baranskyi2Mytsyk1n = 3Baranskyi took 2 of 3
S2Baranskyi2Mytsyk1n = 3Baranskyi took 2 of 3
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaranskyiMytsykB − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match46.545.0+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranskyiMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 196 vs 533 / 106952.6%49.9%103 / 196 vs 533 / 1069Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaranskyiBaranskyi 1.73/Mytsyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Baranskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 30 · 18:00S. Baranskyi3911611113O. Mytsyk30611581
LAug 8 · 06:00S. Baranskyi541117511102O. Mytsyk601315119123
S. Baranskyi10
WOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113LSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123WSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:30S. Baranskyi2.20115671V. Smyk1.6141111113LSep 30 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.5311731142M. Stetsenko2.38911115113LSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101LSep 19 · 17:30S. Solomko1.44111187113S. Baranskyi2.6376111162LSep 19 · 16:00B. Zaika1.3311119113S. Baranskyi3.25641171LSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi1.731611113S. Baranskyi2.0014990
O. Mytsyk10
WOct 4 · 13:00O. Mytsyk1.6181111113S. Skhabitskiy2.20118931WOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.6311119113M. Stetsenko1.44781191LOct 1 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.25391111113O. Mytsyk1.5711113652WOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113LOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 06:50D. Ponomarenko1.808670O. Mytsyk1.911111113LSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113LSep 30 · 16:30O. Mytsyk1.73127691V. Smyk2.00101111113WSep 30 · 15:00O. Mytsyk1.7391111113S. Skhabitskiy2.00117581LSep 30 · 13:30O. Mytsyk2.256611131M. Stetsenko1.5711118153
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.