TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118811115118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 63.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 18–18 Maksym Stetsenko Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4963.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1282 vs Stetsenko 1449
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Stetsenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 30% vs Stetsenko 70%
Stetsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -1 · Stetsenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Stetsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.375 / Stetsenko 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Stetsenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240113
Skhabitskiy2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Stetsenko1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 116 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it97% 69 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it89% 90 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayStetsenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy50%2 of 4
AwayStetsenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Skhabitskiy3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy2Stetsenko4n = 6Stetsenko took 4 of 6
S5Skhabitskiy1Stetsenko2n = 3Stetsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoSkhabitskiy − StetsenkoBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.338.8−5.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 1082 vs 451 / 86443.7%52.2%473 / 1082 vs 451 / 864Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoSkhabitskiy 2.38/Stetsenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy361011871M. Stetsenko4112711113
LSep 30 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy133190M. Stetsenko331111113
LSep 28 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy32118941M. Stetsenko3851111113
WSep 27 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy4111136113M. Stetsenko388111181
WSep 24 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy47771111113M. Stetsenko4211119562
LSep 23 · 12:00S. Skhabitskiy30128100M. Stetsenko371411123
WSep 21 · 10:35S. Skhabitskiy351311113M. Stetsenko2511680
LSep 19 · 10:30S. Skhabitskiy1910540M. Stetsenko341211113
LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3921111962M. Stetsenko49118811113
LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy41111141052M. Stetsenko51891112113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LOct 4 · 15:00V. Nechai1.731141112113S. Skhabitskiy2.0081141462LOct 4 · 13:00O. Mytsyk1.6181111113S. Skhabitskiy2.20118931WOct 2 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy2.00811711113M. Khalenko1.7311811382LOct 2 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.331111113S. Skhabitskiy1.208680WOct 2 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.831811113P. Ostrovskyi1.8316380LOct 2 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.6351111113S. Skhabitskiy1.44118991WOct 2 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy1.401611113S. Semenets2.7514360LOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113LOct 1 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.531141591D. Ponomarenko2.3881117113LOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113
M. Stetsenko10
LOct 4 · 12:00V. Nechai2.10119115113M. Stetsenko1.6721181192LOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.6311119113M. Stetsenko1.44781191WOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:20D. Ponomarenko1.5071111113M. Stetsenko2.50117771WOct 1 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.251011871M. Stetsenko1.5712711113WOct 1 · 06:20V. Melnykov2.255570M. Stetsenko1.571111113WSep 30 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.003190M. Stetsenko1.731111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.831111113O. Ovsiienko1.833750WSep 30 · 15:30V. Smyk1.8081116972M. Stetsenko1.911191411113WSep 30 · 13:30O. Mytsyk2.256611131M. Stetsenko1.5711118153
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