TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Serhii Semenets 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614113116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:59 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 67.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 6–1 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5967.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1295 vs Semenets 1234
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 0% vs Semenets 20%
Semenets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Semenets 60%
Semenets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -6 · Semenets -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Skhabitskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.40 / Semenets 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13230351
Skhabitskiy1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it80% 79 of 99
Semenets2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy6wins
AwaySemenets1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy100%5 of 5
AwaySemenetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy5Semenets2n = 7Skhabitskiy took 5 of 7
S2Skhabitskiy5Semenets2n = 7Skhabitskiy took 5 of 7
S3Skhabitskiy4Semenets3n = 7Skhabitskiy took 4 of 7
S4Skhabitskiy3Semenets3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiySemenetsSkhabitskiy − SemenetsBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match42.733.9+8.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiySemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 1082 vs 420 / 84143.8%49.9%474 / 1082 vs 420 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiySkhabitskiy 1.40/Semenets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 2 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy381611113S. Semenets2314360
WSep 19 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy48911114133S. Semenets43114611112
WFeb 26 · 11:20S. Skhabitskiy4314117113S. Semenets311231151
WNov 11 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy4111118113S. Semenets29771141
WApr 23 · 19:50S. Skhabitskiy4212811113S. Semenets321011651
WApr 14 · 07:50S. Skhabitskiy53149118113S. Semenets43121131162
LApr 9 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy34811781S. Semenets3611311113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LOct 2 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.6351111113S. Skhabitskiy1.44118991LOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113LOct 1 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.531141591D. Ponomarenko2.3881117113LOct 1 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117781O. Mytsyk1.7381111113LOct 1 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.251011871M. Stetsenko1.5712711113LOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113LSep 30 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.003190M. Stetsenko1.731111113WSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123LSep 30 · 15:00O. Mytsyk1.7391111113S. Skhabitskiy2.00117581WSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.10611516123O. Ovsiienko1.671181114102
S. Semenets10
LOct 2 · 07:05S. Semenets2.38114681M. Khalenko1.5391111113LSep 30 · 12:05V. Kondratenko1.6111112113S. Semenets2.20851161LSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets1.737111091S. Hovorunets2.0011512113LSep 30 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.0013118113S. Semenets1.731161151LSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380WSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113WSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113WSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111WSep 29 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.91119231S. Semenets1.8091111113WSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113
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