TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Semenets vs Serhii Hovorunets 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111151012911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:31 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Serhii Semenets @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Serhii Semenets at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 46–32 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 32 of their 78 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:3154.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semenets
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-32 in 78
Semenets
Wrong
gap of 14 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1281 vs Hovorunets 1286
Hovorunets
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 60% vs Hovorunets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 60% vs Hovorunets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets -2 · Hovorunets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Semenets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.727 / Hovorunets 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Semenets)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218513
Semenets1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 101 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Hovorunets2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 32 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets7wins
AwayHovorunets3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets71.4%5 of 7
AwayHovorunets33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets7Hovorunets3n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S2Semenets7Hovorunets3n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S3Semenets6Hovorunets4n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S4Semenets4Hovorunets3n = 7Semenets took 4 of 7
S5Semenets2Hovorunets2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.836.1+4.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 841 vs 234 / 48050.2%48.8%422 / 841 vs 234 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.73/Hovorunets 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Serhii Semenets @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Hovorunets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 17:40S. Semenets3851111113S. Hovorunets35119781
WSep 23 · 10:05S. Semenets47146115113S. Hovorunets42121151132
LSep 22 · 13:40S. Semenets4611971182S. Hovorunets50811119113
WSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets45911113113S. Hovorunets4111591152
WSep 15 · 17:40S. Semenets331111113S. Hovorunets206860
WSep 9 · 07:35S. Semenets431121113S. Hovorunets3281950
WSep 8 · 19:00S. Semenets341211113S. Hovorunets1610420
LAug 18 · 06:28S. Semenets33911671S. Hovorunets3911611113
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Semenets48111115113S. Hovorunets44991791
LAug 5 · 19:00S. Semenets4111461192S. Hovorunets42511114113
S. Semenets10
LSep 30 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.0013118113S. Semenets1.731161151LSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380WSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113WSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113WSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111WSep 29 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.91119231S. Semenets1.8091111113WSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113WSep 29 · 11:10V. Kondratenko1.444890S. Semenets2.631111113LSep 27 · 12:05V. Nechai2.0081411113S. Semenets1.731112831LSep 27 · 10:35S. Semenets2.0055100M. Khalenko1.731111123
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 30 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.0077111132S. Hovorunets1.36111198113WSep 30 · 09:05O. Miklukha3.25641171S. Hovorunets1.3311116113LSep 30 · 07:05V. Kondratenko1.8311711113S. Hovorunets1.83411691WSep 30 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.50881161S. Hovorunets2.5011119113LSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113WSep 29 · 15:40V. Kondratenko1.8311761172S. Hovorunets1.83711115113LSep 29 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.571111133S. Hovorunets2.2597110WSep 29 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.33411119123O. Miklukha3.25118711102WSep 29 · 11:40V. Stukalov2.631990S. Hovorunets1.441111113WSep 23 · 11:05V. Korniichuk1.50211411102S. Hovorunets2.50117113123
Upcoming Matches
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