TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Miklukha vs Serhii Semenets 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:19 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Miklukha above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Serhii Semenets at 64.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Miklukha 8–16 Serhii Semenets Oleh Miklukha has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Semenets beat Miklukha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1964.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Semenets
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miklukha 1095 vs Semenets 1306
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 211 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miklukha 20% vs Semenets 100%
Semenets
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miklukha 10% vs Semenets 50%
Semenets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miklukha -4 · Semenets +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Semenets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiklukha 2.375 / Semenets 1.533
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Semenets)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13218384
Miklukha2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 38 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Semenets1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 101 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiklukha3wins
AwaySemenets7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiklukha40%2 of 5
AwaySemenets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miklukha5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S2Miklukha5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S3Miklukha4Semenets6n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S4Miklukha3Semenets4n = 7Semenets took 4 of 7
S5Miklukha1Semenets4n = 5Semenets took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiklukhaSemenetsM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.942.6−3.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiklukhaSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 457 vs 421 / 83845.7%50.2%209 / 457 vs 421 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsMiklukha 2.38/Semenets 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 16:10O. Miklukha4212910111S. Semenets46101112133
LSep 24 · 09:30O. Miklukha47118111072S. Semenets50911712113
LSep 15 · 11:10O. Miklukha164750S. Semenets331111113
WSep 1 · 06:35O. Miklukha351212113S. Semenets25101050
LAug 26 · 06:00O. Miklukha3841111662S. Semenets48119611113
LAug 18 · 09:30O. Miklukha2691070S. Semenets341112113
LJul 28 · 06:00O. Miklukha46119121132S. Semenets49711146113
LJul 22 · 17:00O. Miklukha4171141182S. Semenets51119119113
WJul 15 · 16:00O. Miklukha50111359123S. Semenets529111111102
WJul 8 · 12:30O. Miklukha48141111123S. Semenets381666101
O. Miklukha10
LSep 29 · 17:10V. Stukalov1.501161311113O. Miklukha2.50711111372LSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111LSep 29 · 14:40V. Kondratenko1.30111343113O. Miklukha3.40811111172LSep 29 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.33411119123O. Miklukha3.25118711102WSep 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.251179101O. Miklukha1.5791111123LSep 27 · 17:10O. Miklukha3.00131080V. Kondratenko1.361512113LSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122LSep 27 · 14:10O. Miklukha1.83791131P. Ostrovskyi1.8311118113LSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552LSep 27 · 11:40O. Miklukha1.57111051162S. Osipov2.25512116113
S. Semenets10
LSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380WSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113WSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111WSep 29 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.91119231S. Semenets1.8091111113WSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113WSep 29 · 11:10V. Kondratenko1.444890S. Semenets2.631111113LSep 27 · 12:05V. Nechai2.0081411113S. Semenets1.731112831LSep 27 · 10:35S. Semenets2.0055100M. Khalenko1.731111123LSep 27 · 08:35S. Kovalenko1.73111142113S. Semenets2.0029111152LSep 27 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50116118113S. Semenets2.5051151142
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