TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kovalenko vs Serhii Semenets 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
112119411211115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kovalenko above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 77 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Kovalenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kovalenko 2–0 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:11What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1178 vs Semenets 1293
Semenets
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Semenets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 50% vs Semenets 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -2 · Semenets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.73 / Semenets 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13201872
Kovalenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Semenets2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 51 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKovalenko2wins
AwaySemenets0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderKovalenko leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKovalenkoSemenetsK − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match50.046.5+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 73 vs 423 / 84042.5%50.4%31 / 73 vs 423 / 840Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.73/Semenets 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 15 · 17:30S. Kovalenko49912411133S. Semenets491110116112
WJun 27 · 07:35S. Kovalenko511210711113S. Semenets44101211652
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 27 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.919570S. Kovalenko1.801111113LSep 27 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.571111113S. Kovalenko2.257860LSep 27 · 06:05S. Kovalenko1.91811731V. Nechai1.8011711113WSep 20 · 17:10V. Kondratenko1.40119971S. Kovalenko2.7581111113WSep 20 · 16:10V. Mykhalchenko1.80117671S. Kovalenko1.9161111113LSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 12:40Y. Korotin1.50118118143S. Kovalenko2.50511711122WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691
S. Semenets10
LSep 27 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50116118113S. Semenets2.5051151142LSep 27 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001111113S. Semenets1.739870WSep 24 · 11:30S. Semenets2.201411113M. Khalenko1.6112980WSep 24 · 09:30O. Miklukha2.50118111072S. Semenets1.50911712113LSep 24 · 07:30V. Mukhin1.5311811113S. Semenets2.38511971WSep 24 · 06:30S. Semenets2.251511113V. Korniichuk1.5713970LSep 24 · 05:30V. Stukalov2.00111310113S. Semenets1.738111291LSep 23 · 12:05S. Semenets2.1071040M. Khalenko1.671112113WSep 23 · 10:05S. Hovorunets2.00121151132S. Semenets1.73146115113WSep 23 · 08:05V. Korniichuk1.44681171S. Semenets2.6311115113
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