TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Mukhin vs Serhii Kovalenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Serhii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Kovalenko at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 0–1 Serhii Kovalenko Vitalii Mukhin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1317 vs Kovalenko 1192
Mukhin
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 30% vs Kovalenko 50%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +2 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mukhin form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.91 / Kovalenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13201873
Mukhin1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 31 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Kovalenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMukhin0wins
AwayKovalenko1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKovalenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMukhinKovalenkoM − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Sweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 339 vs 32 / 7451.6%43.2%175 / 339 vs 32 / 74Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoMukhin 1.91/Kovalenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
V. Mukhin10
WSep 27 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.731312711123V. Nechai2.001114115102WSep 27 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50116118113S. Semenets2.5051151142LSep 27 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.7341270M. Khalenko2.001114113LSep 25 · 11:05V. Mukhin3.4086121192V. Melnykov1.301111109113LSep 25 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.50671191S. Skhabitskiy1.1711118113LSep 25 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.7591161152O. Mytsyk1.40114113113LSep 25 · 06:35V. Mukhin3.757360O. Ovsiienko1.251111113LSep 25 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.10143911112V. Korniichuk1.671211118133LSep 24 · 10:30V. Mukhin2.107611111O. Miklukha1.6711117133WSep 24 · 09:00V. Mukhin1.22111195113V. Stukalov4.0066111152
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 27 · 08:35S. Kovalenko1.73111142113S. Semenets2.0029111152LSep 27 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.571111113S. Kovalenko2.257860LSep 27 · 06:05S. Kovalenko1.91811731V. Nechai1.8011711113WSep 20 · 17:10V. Kondratenko1.40119971S. Kovalenko2.7581111113WSep 20 · 16:10V. Mykhalchenko1.80117671S. Kovalenko1.9161111113LSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 12:40Y. Korotin1.50118118143S. Kovalenko2.50511711122WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691
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