Vitalii Mukhin vs Volodymyr Nechai · pre-match analysis

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 27Finished

Vitalii Mukhin

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

131112147111151210

Volodymyr Nechai

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vitalii Mukhin to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Volodymyr Nechai below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 12-14

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 11-5

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 54.0%

106 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:08

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Mukhin

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Mukhin 1306 vs Nechai 1332

Nechai

Wrong

both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mukhin 20% vs Nechai 60%

Nechai

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mukhin 30% vs Nechai 50%

Nechai

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mukhin +1 · Nechai +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mukhin)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mukhin form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMukhin 1.73 / Nechai 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Mukhin)+0.3pp

Setka Cup · #13202050

Mukhin1.73

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite71% won 95 of 134

Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55

Up 1–0, closes it86% 71 of 83

Nechai2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMukhinNechaiBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 338 vs 3 / 751.5%42.9%174 / 338 vs 3 / 7Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Mukhin

Mukhin 1.73/Nechai 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Mukhin · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mukhin won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

V. Mukhin10