TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Kondratenko vs Serhii Semenets 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115211116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:03 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 55.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 10–9 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0355.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1223 vs Semenets 1270
Semenets
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 60% vs Semenets 40%
Kondratenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 60% vs Semenets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko +3 · Semenets -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Kondratenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.615 / Semenets 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kondratenko)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218586
Kondratenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 83 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it79% 59 of 75
Semenets2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko5wins
AwaySemenets5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko57.1%4 of 7
AwaySemenets66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko7Semenets3n = 10Kondratenko took 7 of 10
S2Kondratenko7Semenets3n = 10Kondratenko took 7 of 10
S3Kondratenko5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S4Kondratenko2Semenets3n = 5Semenets took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoSemenetsK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.033.4+1.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 552 vs 422 / 84244.6%50.1%246 / 552 vs 422 / 842Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.61/Semenets 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 11:10V. Kondratenko214890S. Semenets331111113
LSep 16 · 06:50V. Kondratenko49111111972S. Semenets46741311113
WAug 24 · 08:35V. Kondratenko341111123S. Semenets2367100
WAug 22 · 10:00V. Kondratenko3521111113S. Semenets29116661
LAug 8 · 09:30V. Kondratenko37911891S. Semenets3611311113
WAug 6 · 05:30V. Kondratenko351111133S. Semenets2586110
WJul 28 · 05:00V. Kondratenko351311113S. Semenets2611780
WFeb 18 · 22:50V. Kondratenko351211123S. Semenets27107100
LFeb 4 · 20:50V. Kondratenko3912841142S. Semenets521011119113
LJan 25 · 17:50V. Kondratenko30114781S. Semenets3741111113
V. Kondratenko10
WSep 30 · 10:05O. Miklukha3.25711681V. Kondratenko1.3311711113WSep 30 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.201171011V. Kondratenko1.6161112113WSep 30 · 07:05V. Kondratenko1.8311711113S. Hovorunets1.83411691LSep 30 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.2511711113V. Kondratenko1.57711651LSep 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin2.5010111110113V. Kondratenko1.5012881272LSep 29 · 15:40V. Kondratenko1.8311761172S. Hovorunets1.83711115113WSep 29 · 14:40V. Kondratenko1.30111343113O. Miklukha3.40811111172WSep 29 · 13:10V. Kondratenko1.731112113V. Stukalov2.0071080LSep 29 · 11:10V. Kondratenko1.444890S. Semenets2.631111113WSep 27 · 17:10O. Miklukha3.00131080V. Kondratenko1.361512113
S. Semenets10
LSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets1.737111091S. Hovorunets2.0011512113LSep 30 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.0013118113S. Semenets1.731161151LSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380WSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113WSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113WSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111WSep 29 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.91119231S. Semenets1.8091111113WSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113WSep 29 · 11:10V. Kondratenko1.444890S. Semenets2.631111113LSep 27 · 12:05V. Nechai2.0081411113S. Semenets1.731112831
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