TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lipeiko vs Maksym Stetsenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113611811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 4–4 Maksym Stetsenko Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lipeiko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1384 vs Stetsenko 1478
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 20% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 30% vs Stetsenko 60%
Stetsenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko +1 · Stetsenko +3
Stetsenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lipeiko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.727 / Stetsenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lipeiko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245185
Lipeiko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 62 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Stetsenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 93 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back24% 30 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLipeiko4wins
AwayStetsenko4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko57.1%4 of 7
AwayStetsenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko7Stetsenko1n = 8Lipeiko took 7 of 8
S2Lipeiko3Stetsenko5n = 8Stetsenko took 5 of 8
S3Lipeiko3Stetsenko5n = 8Stetsenko took 5 of 8
S4Lipeiko2Stetsenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLipeikoStetsenkoL − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match35.534.8+0.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 529 vs 457 / 87248%52.4%254 / 529 vs 457 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoLipeiko 1.73/Stetsenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 28 · 11:20O. Lipeiko29115671M. Stetsenko4291111113
WSep 23 · 14:00O. Lipeiko331111113M. Stetsenko185670
WSep 17 · 08:20O. Lipeiko331111113M. Stetsenko268990
LSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko371171091M. Stetsenko3511112113
LAug 24 · 09:20O. Lipeiko4011481252M. Stetsenko529111110113
WJul 13 · 07:50O. Lipeiko331111113M. Stetsenko236980
WJul 1 · 16:00O. Lipeiko501171011113M. Stetsenko4681112962
LJun 29 · 10:20O. Lipeiko2991280M. Stetsenko361114113
O. Lipeiko10
WOct 5 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.387230O. Lipeiko1.531111113LOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113LOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130LOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.6112911121V. Melnykov2.2014119143LSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113WSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113LSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581LSep 29 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.001111111162S. Solomko1.73139813113WSep 28 · 12:50A. Kovalenko2.101011291O. Lipeiko1.6712911113
M. Stetsenko10
WOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113WOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 5 · 07:50V. Melnykov2.6311681152M. Stetsenko1.44811117113LOct 5 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.251114810133M. Stetsenko1.578121112112WOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 16:00S. Baranskyi2.0011613752M. Stetsenko1.739111111113LOct 4 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.38611811113M. Stetsenko1.5311811582LOct 4 · 12:00V. Nechai2.10119115113M. Stetsenko1.6721181192LOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.6311119113M. Stetsenko1.44781191
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