TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Ihor Emets 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210511711711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Ihor Emets below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Ihor Emets at 69.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 9–19 Ihor Emets Oleksandr Leonenko has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4769.8%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.6pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-19 in 28
Emets
Correct
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1477 vs Emets 1483
Emets
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Emets 80%
Emets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 40% vs Emets 60%
Emets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Emets +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Emets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.75 / Emets 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Emets)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261634
Leonenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 73 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Emets1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 61 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko3wins
AwayEmets7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayEmets85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Emets7n = 10Emets took 7 of 10
S2Leonenko4Emets6n = 10Emets took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko5Emets5n = 10split evenly
S4Leonenko2Emets2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoEmetsL − EBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.534.9−1.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoEmetsBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 825 vs 257 / 50051.3%51.4%423 / 825 vs 257 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsLeonenko 2.75/Emets 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 09:30O. Leonenko2041060I. Emets341112113
WSep 22 · 07:35O. Leonenko331111113I. Emets239860
LSep 17 · 07:35O. Leonenko37118991I. Emets3961111113
LApr 23 · 07:00O. Leonenko48910111442I. Emets521112612113
LMar 9 · 09:20O. Leonenko269980I. Emets331111113
WMar 5 · 09:20O. Leonenko4071111113I. Emets32116691
LMar 2 · 12:50O. Leonenko2776140I. Emets381111163
LJan 20 · 07:00O. Leonenko259970I. Emets331111113
WDec 22 · 12:05O. Leonenko331111113I. Emets174580
LSep 30 · 11:00O. Leonenko4691111872I. Emets48119611113
O. Leonenko10
LOct 8 · 10:20O. Leonenko2.503960S. Hryhorenko1.501111113WOct 8 · 08:50O. Leonenko1.57881111113M. Stetsenko2.2511118392WOct 8 · 07:20O. Leonenko2.20611128113S. Solomko1.61117101142WOct 8 · 05:50O. Leonenko3.0051111113O. Volynets1.36119741LOct 6 · 11:30O. Leonenko2.10111951A. Kurtenko1.6711611113LOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.105240O. Volynets1.671111113LOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482WOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101
I. Emets10
WOct 8 · 10:50I. Emets1.6711119113M. Stetsenko2.10761161WOct 8 · 09:50I. Emets2.25911116133O. Volynets1.57116711112LOct 8 · 08:20I. Emets2.631110119102S. Hryhorenko1.44812411123WOct 8 · 06:20I. Emets1.61691112113S. Solomko2.20111181062WOct 6 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.671511781I. Emets2.1017811113WOct 6 · 09:30I. Emets1.441112113O. Leonenko2.6341060LOct 6 · 08:30I. Emets2.38117101182O. Volynets1.53611127113LOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551LSep 29 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.67111179113I. Emets2.1078111192
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