TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Zaika vs Eduard Populovskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911116511811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBohdan Zaika above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Bohdan Zaika at 73.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Zaika 18–8 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5773.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zaika
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-8 in 26
Zaika
Wrong
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaika 1516 vs Populovskyi 1348
Zaika
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaika 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaika 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Zaika
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaika -2 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Zaika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaika 1.363 / Populovskyi 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Zaika)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13270840
Zaika1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Populovskyi3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaika8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZaika leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaika77.8%7 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaika9Populovskyi1n = 10Zaika took 9 of 10
S2Zaika6Populovskyi4n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S3Zaika6Populovskyi4n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S4Zaika5Populovskyi3n = 8Zaika took 5 of 8
S5Zaika2Populovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaikaPopulovskyiZ − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.037.4+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaikaPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 561 vs 340 / 70750.3%48.1%282 / 561 vs 340 / 707Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaZaika 1.36/Populovskyi 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 17:00B. Zaika4311119123E. Populovskyi388911101
LJul 19 · 09:20B. Zaika47117115132E. Populovskyi50511811153
WJun 6 · 18:50B. Zaika48119611113E. Populovskyi4781111892
WMay 31 · 18:50B. Zaika4211119113E. Populovskyi30961141
WMay 10 · 12:20B. Zaika331111113E. Populovskyi225890
WMay 9 · 19:50B. Zaika45111211113E. Populovskyi365101381
WApr 26 · 07:50B. Zaika4211911113E. Populovskyi32611961
WApr 19 · 12:50B. Zaika371511113E. Populovskyi2913970
LApr 18 · 18:50B. Zaika471110111052E. Populovskyi45512512113
WApr 12 · 12:20B. Zaika46711115123E. Populovskyi45115811102
B. Zaika10
LOct 10 · 18:00O. Osadchyi1.40114118113B. Zaika2.7571181192LOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113WOct 10 · 12:30B. Zaika1.7311146113A. Kovalenko2.006121181WSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123WSep 26 · 16:00B. Zaika1.919111193D. Patalakha1.80119731LSep 26 · 14:30B. Zaika3.5013450O. Osadchyi1.28151163WSep 26 · 12:30B. Zaika1.57118118113S. Solomko2.2581181182WSep 19 · 18:00A. Martyniuk2.633131111102B. Zaika1.441111136123
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181WOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113WOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko3.007750E. Populovskyi1.361111113LOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640LOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101LOct 5 · 10:00S. Solomko1.171111113E. Populovskyi4.504270
Upcoming Matches
B. Zaika
Nothing scheduled
E. Populovskyi
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