TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Bohdan Zaika 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117411118811119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Bohdan Zaika below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 65.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 6–2 Bohdan Zaika Bohdan Zaika has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5465.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 6.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1479 vs Zaika 1500
Zaika
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Zaika 40%
Osadchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Zaika 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Zaika -3
Zaika
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.40 / Zaika 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Osadchyi)-6.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270910
Osadchyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 114 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 82 of 105
Zaika2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 22 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeOsadchyi6wins
AwayZaika2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi75%6 of 8
AwayZaikan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi8Zaika0n = 8Osadchyi took 8 of 8
S2Osadchyi6Zaika2n = 8Osadchyi took 6 of 8
S3Osadchyi5Zaika2n = 7Osadchyi took 5 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home675%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricOsadchyiZaikaO − ZBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set80+8of 8Avg pointsper match34.728.4+6.3per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiZaikaBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 869 vs 282 / 56251.6%50.2%448 / 869 vs 282 / 562Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.40/Zaika 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 28 · 17:10O. Osadchyi331111113B. Zaika217770
WJul 26 · 08:20O. Osadchyi331111113B. Zaika178630
WJul 25 · 14:30O. Osadchyi351113113B. Zaika2151150
LJul 21 · 13:10O. Osadchyi36118891B. Zaika3961111113
WJul 19 · 12:20O. Osadchyi331111113B. Zaika237970
WJul 18 · 14:30O. Osadchyi351111133B. Zaika2898110
LJun 23 · 15:40O. Osadchyi3811541172B. Zaika50811119113
O. Osadchyi10
LOct 10 · 16:30O. Osadchyi3.00641181A. Martyniuk1.3611118113WOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.50991111113A. Kovalenko2.5011117572WOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LOct 6 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.671511781I. Emets2.1017811113LOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi1.804880A. Kurtenko1.911111113WOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441
B. Zaika10
LOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113WOct 10 · 12:30B. Zaika1.7311146113A. Kovalenko2.006121181WSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123WSep 26 · 16:00B. Zaika1.919111193D. Patalakha1.80119731LSep 26 · 14:30B. Zaika3.5013450O. Osadchyi1.28151163WSep 26 · 12:30B. Zaika1.57118118113S. Solomko2.2581181182WSep 19 · 18:00A. Martyniuk2.633131111102B. Zaika1.441111136123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.