TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Populovskyi vs Dmytro Patalakha 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210611108––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Patalakha to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-4
Point 71 set 4, 8-4 · our read held Dmytro Patalakha at 64.9%
71 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 27–44 Dmytro Patalakha Eduard Populovskyi has won 27 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5864.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Patalakha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-44 in 71
Patalakha
Wrong
gap of 17 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1367 vs Patalakha 1459
Patalakha
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 60% vs Patalakha 20%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 30% vs Patalakha 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi -1 · Patalakha -3
Patalakha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Patalakha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 2.625 / Patalakha 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Patalakha)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271049
Populovskyi2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Patalakha1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi1wins
AwayPatalakha9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPatalakha leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi0%0 of 5
AwayPatalakha80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi5Patalakha5n = 10split evenly
S2Populovskyi2Patalakha8n = 10Patalakha took 8 of 10
S3Populovskyi1Patalakha9n = 10Patalakha took 9 of 10
S4Populovskyi3Patalakha3n = 6split evenly
S5Populovskyi1Patalakha4n = 5Patalakha took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiPatalakhaPopulovskyi − PatalakhaBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.541.2−6.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 705 vs 112 / 24148.1%46.5%339 / 705 vs 112 / 241Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PatalakhaPopulovskyi 2.63/Patalakha 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Patalakha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 11:50E. Populovskyi208570D. Patalakha331111113
LAug 2 · 04:30E. Populovskyi3511561122D. Patalakha42711112113
LAug 1 · 19:00E. Populovskyi161780D. Patalakha331111113
LJul 11 · 12:30E. Populovskyi34117791D. Patalakha3961111113
LJun 14 · 11:20E. Populovskyi4511891162D. Patalakha47611118113
LJun 13 · 14:50E. Populovskyi2899100D. Patalakha341111123
LJun 7 · 07:20E. Populovskyi2891180D. Patalakha351113113
LJun 6 · 14:50E. Populovskyi4512119582D. Patalakha511081111113
WMay 17 · 12:20E. Populovskyi569121113113D. Patalakha49111471162
LMay 16 · 20:20E. Populovskyi3811113492D. Patalakha49971111113
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113WOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko3.007750E. Populovskyi1.361111113LOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640LOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101LOct 5 · 10:00S. Solomko1.171111113E. Populovskyi4.504270LOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760LOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141
D. Patalakha10
LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113LSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142WSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123LSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 27 · 05:50S. Solomko1.918780D. Patalakha1.801111113LSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162WSep 26 · 17:30S. Solomko1.801112351D. Patalakha1.9171411113LSep 26 · 16:00B. Zaika1.919111193D. Patalakha1.80119731LSep 26 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.301112113D. Patalakha3.4071040
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