TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Patalakha vs Bohdan Zaika 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11591112107111113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Patalakha above · Bohdan Zaika below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 100 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Bohdan Zaika at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Patalakha 8–5 Bohdan Zaika Bohdan Zaika has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Patalakha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Patalakha
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patalakha 1466 vs Zaika 1502
Zaika
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patalakha 60% vs Zaika 20%
Patalakha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patalakha 40% vs Zaika 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Patalakha +1 · Zaika +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zaika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaika form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatalakha 1.80 / Zaika 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zaika)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13276306
Patalakha1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 26 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Zaika1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 22 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePatalakha6wins
AwayZaika4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPatalakha leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatalakha75%3 of 4
AwayZaika50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patalakha4Zaika6n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S2Patalakha3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S3Patalakha5Zaika5n = 10split evenly
S4Patalakha4Zaika1n = 5Patalakha took 4 of 5
S5Patalakha3Zaika0n = 3Patalakha took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPatalakhaZaikaP − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.936.6−1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatalakhaZaikaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 246 vs 283 / 56446.8%50.2%115 / 246 vs 283 / 564Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaPatalakha 1.80/Zaika 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zaika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 10 · 16:00D. Patalakha43101111113B. Zaika32126771
WJul 26 · 10:20D. Patalakha42721111113B. Zaika4111115682
WJul 25 · 18:00D. Patalakha55159119113B. Zaika51131181182
WJun 6 · 20:50D. Patalakha4061112113B. Zaika341171061
WApr 5 · 07:50D. Patalakha49127613113B. Zaika471011111142
WApr 4 · 18:50D. Patalakha331111113B. Zaika226970
LFeb 7 · 21:20D. Patalakha165560B. Zaika331111113
LFeb 16 · 10:20D. Patalakha1101010B. Zaika341112113
LFeb 15 · 17:50D. Patalakha25105100B. Zaika351211123
D. Patalakha10
WOct 11 · 09:50D. Patalakha1.4491111113S. Baranskyi2.63118581WOct 11 · 06:20D. Patalakha1.44211411113E. Populovskyi2.6311711562LOct 10 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.401111113D. Patalakha2.758790WOct 10 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.831241441D. Patalakha1.83101116113WOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113LSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142WSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123
B. Zaika10
LOct 11 · 10:20M. Stetsenko2.00138117113B. Zaika1.73111181172LOct 11 · 09:20B. Zaika1.40981171E. Populovskyi2.7511113113WOct 11 · 06:50B. Zaika1.7311713113S. Solomko2.003111161LOct 10 · 18:00O. Osadchyi1.40114118113B. Zaika2.7571181192LOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113WOct 10 · 12:30B. Zaika1.7311146113A. Kovalenko2.006121181WSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123
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