TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Dmytro Patalakha 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117119––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-3
Point 45 set 3, 5-3 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 68.3%
45 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 4–1 Dmytro Patalakha Dmytro Patalakha has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2568.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1486 vs Patalakha 1491
Patalakha
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 60% vs Patalakha 40%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 40% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk +3 · Patalakha +2
Martyniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.40 / Patalakha 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Martyniuk)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270779
Martyniuk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Patalakha2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMartyniuk4wins
AwayPatalakha1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPatalakha33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk2Patalakha3n = 5Patalakha took 3 of 5
S2Martyniuk5Patalakha0n = 5Martyniuk took 5 of 5
S3Martyniuk4Patalakha1n = 5Martyniuk took 4 of 5
S4Martyniuk2Patalakha1n = 3Martyniuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMartyniukPatalakhaM − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.433.0+9.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 376 vs 114 / 24452.1%46.7%196 / 376 vs 114 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.40/Patalakha 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 26 · 07:20A. Martyniuk43101111113D. Patalakha35128691
WFeb 21 · 22:50A. Martyniuk331111113D. Patalakha174850
WSep 21 · 07:50A. Martyniuk529111110113D. Patalakha4311791242
WSep 20 · 15:20A. Martyniuk351113113D. Patalakha2281130
LApr 26 · 15:20A. Martyniuk49711111192D. Patalakha48117136113
A. Martyniuk10
WOct 10 · 16:30O. Osadchyi3.00641181A. Martyniuk1.3611118113WOct 10 · 15:30A. Martyniuk1.4412117113A. Kovalenko2.631071141WOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113LOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 6 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.4011128113A. Martyniuk2.758101151LOct 6 · 10:05A. Martyniuk2.50116451S. Kyienko1.5091111113LOct 6 · 09:05A. Martyniuk2.2511760Y. Kovshun1.571311113LOct 6 · 07:35A. Martyniuk2.75105100V. Bilobrov1.401211123LOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113WOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441
D. Patalakha10
WOct 10 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.831241441D. Patalakha1.83101116113WOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113LSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142WSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123LSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 27 · 05:50S. Solomko1.918780D. Patalakha1.801111113LSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162
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