TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Yaroslav Kovshun 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711611––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 62.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 5–8 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrii Martyniuk has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0062.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1524 vs Kovshun 1640
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 20% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 40% vs Kovshun 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk -2 · Kovshun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 2.25 / Kovshun 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kovshun)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251353
Martyniuk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 26 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Kovshun1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 113 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it78% 77 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk4wins
AwayKovshun6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk60%3 of 5
AwayKovshun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S2Martyniuk2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S3Martyniuk6Kovshun4n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S4Martyniuk4Kovshun3n = 7Martyniuk took 4 of 7
S5Martyniuk1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukKovshunM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.6−0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 370 vs 339 / 63552.2%53.4%193 / 370 vs 339 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunMartyniuk 2.25/Kovshun 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 07:00A. Martyniuk46118511113Y. Kovshun4791111882
LSep 22 · 11:00A. Martyniuk459191161Y. Kovshun5111218113
WApr 28 · 06:00A. Martyniuk3911611113Y. Kovshun37911891
WApr 12 · 10:05A. Martyniuk331111113Y. Kovshun144460
LMar 25 · 16:40A. Martyniuk2810990Y. Kovshun341211113
LMar 23 · 11:05A. Martyniuk4311811672Y. Kovshun48911611113
LMar 19 · 06:05A. Martyniuk246990Y. Kovshun331111113
LMar 18 · 14:40A. Martyniuk4889121182Y. Kovshun481111105113
LMar 12 · 11:05A. Martyniuk32134871Y. Kovshun44111111113
WFeb 26 · 12:05A. Martyniuk4071111113Y. Kovshun30115591
A. Martyniuk10
LOct 6 · 10:05A. Martyniuk2.50116451S. Kyienko1.5091111113LOct 6 · 07:35A. Martyniuk2.75105100V. Bilobrov1.401211123LOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113WOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441LOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121LOct 4 · 09:20A. Martyniuk1.40111171182A. Kovalenko2.75681113113LOct 4 · 08:20S. Solomko2.00111167113A. Martyniuk1.7368111152WOct 4 · 06:50A. Martyniuk1.36111011113A. Kurtenko3.00712971LOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971WOct 3 · 17:00A. Martyniuk1.4491111123A. Kovalenko2.631179101
Y. Kovshun10
LOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 07:05S. Kyienko1.6791141182Y. Kovshun2.10115115113LOct 6 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83115155113Y. Kovshun1.83511131162WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.839111111102Y. Kovshun1.83114413123LOct 5 · 10:38Y. Kovshun1.91117751Y. Volkov1.8071111113WOct 5 · 09:05Y. Kovshun1.671111113O. Karpenko2.107880WOct 5 · 08:33S. Hryhorenko2.50111941Y. Kovshun1.5091111113LOct 5 · 05:35Y. Kovshun1.5311591272A. Troyan2.387111110113WOct 3 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.63119111172Y. Kovshun1.44311136113LOct 3 · 10:00V. Kryvenko1.6111611113Y. Kovshun2.20911481
Upcoming Matches
A. Martyniuk
Nothing scheduled
Y. Kovshun
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